（全文见PDF版） 美 国 研 究 季 刊 1992年第1期 AMERICAN STUDIES 第6卷 3月5日出版 世界经济格局变化的动力学:美国的地位和作用 肖 炼（7） 　　——方法论研究 从产业角度看美国经济的未来 丁浩金（29） 关于美国投资、贸易和政府收支的分析 韦 伟（42） 美国军费削减对经济的影响 萧 琛（59） 美国的外贸地位和前景 李长久（72） 论美、日、西欧国际资本地位的新变化 孙海顺（82） 美日经济摩擦及其在亚洲的争夺 冯昭奎（93） 九十年代美德经济地位的变化及双边经济关系浅析 杜厚文、张强（110） 九十年代美国国际金融地位探讨 黄卫平、朱文晖（120） 美国在危机中——美国是否衰落论战述评 徐国琦（135） 编后 （159） 本期责任编辑: 赵 梅 编辑出版 中华美国学 中国社会科学院美国研究所 照排 中国社会科学院美国研究所 印刷装钉 北京仰山印刷厂 发行、订阅处 中国社会科学院美国研究所 北京建国门内大街5号 刊号 ISSN1002-8986/CN11-1170／C@ 国外代号 Q1122 国外发行 中国国际图书贸易总公司 北京399信箱 定价: 国内版3.00元 国际版3.00美元（邮费在外） AMERICAN STUDIES Spring 1992 Vol. 6, No. 1 CONTENTS DYNAMICS OF CHANGING WORLD ECONOMIC STRUCTURE: U.S. ROLE AND INFLUENCE Xiao Lian（7） This article discusses the inherent dynamics of the changing world economic structure and gives an analysis based on three levels of competition, namely, enterprises, industries and state, which combine to influence the American standing in the new world structure. The continuity, the discontinuity, the discontinuous continuity and the differentiated acceleration of value chains are the basic points discussed in this essay. THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN ECONOMY Ding Haojin（29） Despite the fact that the U.S. economic status in the world has greatly declined since the 1950s, America is the strongest economic power in the world. Even by the year 2000, its economic strength will still rank first among world nations. AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. INVESTMENT, TRADE AND GOVERNMENT BUDGET Wei Wei（42） This essay gives the author's perception of U.S. economy in three points. They are: (1) the domestic private investment will steadily grow and may fluctuate twice in the 1990s; (2) the foreign trade deficit will gradually fall off and be balanced out finally; and (3) the federal government cannot resolve its budget deficit in the 1990s. THE INFLUENCE OF U.S. DEFENSE BUDGET CUT ON ECONOMY Xiao Chen（59） Although disarmament has brought about many problems, notably unemployment, to U.S. economy in the short term, it has led to a reallocation of resources in economic readjustment. This will be conducive to American economic growth and the rise of its international standing as seen from a long-term viewpoint, because the role of military force is no longer so compulsive in the information age. THE STATUS OF U.S. FOREIGN TRADE AND ITS PROSPECTS Li Changjiu（72） The U.S. foreign trade has advantages and yet is facing great challenges. Generally speaking, it may have a smaller deficit in the 1990s and will be keeping an advantageous position if measured in all its aspects. ON THE CHANGING RELATIVE STANDING OF U.S., JAPANESE AND E.C. INTERNATIONAL CAPITALS Sun Haishun（82） The United States, Japan and Western Europe are major actors in the international capital market. America is the largest capital importer of the three, but its foreign investment may fall off. The other two powers are expected to greatly increase their foreign investments and strongly influence international capital flows in the 1990s. U.S.-JAPANESE ECONOMIC FRICTION AND THEIR CONTENTION IN ASIA Feng Zhaokui（93） The 1980s witnessed the intensifying trade friction between the United States and Japan, which was the result of very close economic ties between the two countries. Politically America was on the offensive and Japan on the defensive in the conflict, while economically the situation was just the opposite. Thus the United States still played a leading role in political affairs, but its economic power was declining. CHANGING U.S. AND GERMAN ECONOMIC STATUSES AND THEIR BILATERAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS IN THE 1990S Du Houwen ＆ Zhang Qiang（110） Germany has been expanding in national product, foreign trade, direct investment and financial market. Its relative economic status in the world will certainly rise. Nevertheless, there is a long way for Germany to go before catching up with America. Thus the United States will be able to retain its leading standing for a considerable time to come. A DISCUSSION OF THE U.S. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STANDING IN THE 1990S Huang Weiping ＆ Zhu Wenhui(120) Under grave challenges from Japan and Europe, the United States still maintains its advantageous international financial standing in such fields as transnational banking, international monetary system and international investment. Its leading role is irreplaceable by any other nation. AMERICA IN CRISIS: A REVIEW OF THE DEBATE ON AMERICAN DECLINE Xu Guoqi(135) Owing to the confusion in reference frames, the difference in statistics and the emotionalized attitude of both sides in debate, the schools of decline and non-decline in the United States have tangled with each other in open polemics.. In fact, a clear-cut line of demarcation can hardly be drawn between them. The judgment that "America is in crisis" seems to better agree with the reality. EDITOR'S NOTE (159) AMERICAN STUDIES, a quarterly, is published jointly by the Chinese Association for American Studies, and the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The content of the articles in this journal should not be construed as reflecting the views either of the Association or the Institute.