Consensuses and Conflicts in China-US Relations Zhang Liping Keywords: The rise of China, US grand strategy, China-US relations Summary: Observing present China-US Relations, the author finds out that there have actually existed widespread consensuses in China-US Relations with the adjustment of US grand strategy after September 11, 2001 although diverse frictions and conflicts come up now and then, here and there. In this article, she tries to identify what the consensuses are and the conflicts are on the list of the issues firstly. And then she analyzes the domestic sources and international factors resulting in these consensuses and conflicts. Lastly she points out how the consensus can continue to be built and expanded and how the conflicts can be managed and reduced because a stable and healthy relationship between China and the United States is vital to the stability, peace and prosperity not only in Asia but also around world in the future. Author: Dr. Zhang Liping, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Political Studies Section at the Institute of American Studies , Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Contact: phone: 6401,5645(O), 13522085965 (C) fax:64000021(O) email: Zhanglp_helen@yahoo.com, zhlp@cass.org.cn. ******************************************************************************* Recently, the theme entitled “A resurgent (or Rising) China: Implications for US” has been frequently discussed and debated in colleges, think thanks and even on the Capitol Hill. Americans are anxiously trying to figure out whether China’s emergence is an opportunity or a threat/ a challenge/a risk/a danger for US. With the confidence growing resulting from rapid consecutive economic increase, China has a lot of reasons to claim that the resurgence of China is not only beneficial for US but also for the whole world. Many Chinese scholars also argue that China is beneficiary of the present international system dominated by US and does not challenge this system. But American doesn’t take this argument easily. Meanwhile, the topic titled “American Global Strategy Readjustment: Implications for China” have been picked up time and again in the Chinese foreign policy community ever since 2002. Chinese leaders as well as specialist in the international affairs have been anxious to know whether this readjustment would offer a brand-new strategic opportunity or a potential long-term security threat for China. Despite of the different heated topics across the Pacific Sea, the same key words are US, China, Opportunity, and threat. The core subject of these discussions and debates on both sides highlights the importance of mutual interactions and interdependence between US and China. It involves in how we deal with the China-US Relations and to a large extent this depends on how we view each other and how we spread our consensuses and reduce our conflicts. When I follow and observe China-US Relations, I find out that there have actually existed widespread consensuses in China-US Relations with the adjustment of US grand strategy after September 11, 2001 although diverse frictions and conflicts come up now and then, here and there. Here I try to identify what the consensuses are and the conflicts are on the list of the issues firstly. And then I will analyze the domestic sources and international factors resulting in these consensuses and conflicts. Lastly I will point out how the consensus can continue to be built and expanded and how the conflicts can be managed and reduced because a stable and healthy relationship between United States and China is vital to the stability, peace and prosperity of the world in the future. ㈠ Consensuses and Conflicts on the list of issues (1) International System and Order. Before September 11, 2001, China-US Relations underwent bumpy road owing to the lack of common strategic rationale resulted from the disappearance of Soviet threat. US constantly pointed out fingers at Chinese domestic affairs. China was angered by those blames and pressures and felt unsafe politically. During a long period, China has been expecting a fair, reasonable and new international order. That means China is not completely pleased with the present international system dominated by America superpower. However, with increasing China’s engagement into world economy and benefit from globalization, China has been conscious of the reality soberly: (a) American primacy will last in short and mid-term period and America plays an important role to offer the public goods such as security and stability in the world, particularly in Asian Pacific area, which helps to safeguard a peaceful external environment imperative for China’s domestic economic development. (b) China has been one of the biggest benefactors of the present international system. China maintained consecutive economic growth with average GDP increasing by 9.7% from 1979 to 2005. With accession to WTO in 2001, China has become a real “stakeholder” of the world economy. In one word, China basically admits the present international order and won’t challenge the authority of reigning America in a relatively long time. However, China could not and would not endorse US preemptive strikes against any sovereign states because of perceived threat and “evil intention”, such as invasion into Iraq and regime change with military forces under the pretext of removal of WMD, which proved to be false. (2) Security Threat: terrorism and proliferation of WMD. After the sneak attack by terrorists, America has come to realize that the biggest threat confronted today is not traditional threats posed by national states but non-traditional threats by Al-Qaeda and other terrorists stimulated by fatal radical religion. The worst scenario is the combination between terrorism and WMD. China also regard terrorism and proliferation of WMD as real threats because China is the only country bordered with 3 nuclear powers (Russia, India and Pakistan) in the world and close to the bases of Al-Qaeda. And China is worrying that the terrorists sneak into Xingjian and collude with Xingjian’s separatists. When America campaigns the war against terrorism, China also declares to fight against “Three Evil Forces”, that is terrorism, separatism and radicalism. But China has different views of the roots and sources of terrorism, not only attributed to the hatred toward to Western values and way of life but also to the poverty and the misgivings of American policy. (3) Economic and Trade issue. China and the US share the common characters of the open and free market-based economy despite of difference of the prefix (either capitalist or socialist). The world has witnessed a miracle: America has continued to maintain the highest economic increase rate among the developed countries since 1992 (except the short-term mild downturn in 2001); whereas China has led in economic increase among the developing countries in the past two decades. China’s economy and United State’s economy are exerting the twin locomotive effects on the world economy: at present, United states, with about 33% share of the world GDP; while China, with a 5 percent share of the world GDP, making a 10 percent contribution to world economic growth and 12 percent contribution to global trade growth, second only to the U.S. The more interdependent and complementary of the two economies, the more frictions and conflicts seem to increase in this area. Some Americans attributed huge trade deficit with China (although it just accounted 24% of total U.S. bilateral trade deficit in 2005) and big unemployment in manufacture to the Chinese government “manipulations” of the currency exchange and abuse of labor rights and intellectual property rights. (4) Energy issue. China has become the second biggest country of oil consumption, second to America. The imported oil accounts for 40% of the total in China, while it just accounts for 25% of American whole oil consumption. Keeping the country of oil production stable and maintaining the public sea line safe are in the interest of China and the U.S. In order to get rid of extreme dependence on foreign oil, both countries need to develop new energies and increase the efficiencies of oil use. The conflicts are reflected in two fields: on the China’s hand, China is hungry for the oil that the economy’s development relies on and fearful that the demand cannot be satisfied once the oil production and oil transportation are blocked. On the America’s side, it is worrying that the big demand of China consumption will raise the price of world oil market (which actually is not in the interest of China) and China usually makes oil deals with any countries despite that some of them are hostile toward America. And Americans are also afraid to fall behind China in oil deals in Africa, Middle Asia, and Latin America. (5) Nuclear Issue. Both China and US support the NPT (nonproliferation treaty) and oppose the proliferation. They agree that Korean Peninsula should be nuclear free zone. North Korean Nuclear issue and Iranian Nuclear Crisis should be solved through diplomacy firstly. China hosted several six-party talks in order to help solving North Korean nuclear issue peacefully. Americans appreciated the efforts made by China but also indicated that their patience has been becoming thin and they were unpleasant with the slow progress and ineffective results. On Iranian nuclear issue, America threatens to exert sanction against Iran if Iran is not obliged and sits at the negotiated table. When American said “all options are on the table”, it means by using every means and tools including air attack to root out the Iranian nuclear program. China does not think this is a good idea. (6) Taiwan Issue. Taiwan issue has been one of mostly disputed and mostly disrupted issue in China-US Relations. It has always touched Chinese national psyche and spurred deep sentiment. After so many gives-and-takes, America has been well aware of the China’s red bottom line and signal a severe warning to the radical pro-independence Taiwanese leader that independence of Taiwan just means war and any change of status quo from either side is opposed by the US. Preventing Taiwan from independence and safeguarding the stability across the straits are in the common practical interest of China and United states at the moment. However, because of Taiwan issue involving too many historic relic and sentimental feelings as well as domestic politics for both, it is easy to become a flash point. The Chinese in mainland have been determined to reunite with Taiwan someday in any means. “All Chinese are nationalists on Taiwan issue,” well-known China Hand David Lampton observed. On the America side, constrained by the domestic law “Taiwan Relations Act of 1979” and influenced by strong lobbying of Formosa Council of Public Affairs, America maintains that peaceful solution to Taiwan issue is of the US concern. It seems to me that United States emphasizes the peaceful solution and does not refer whether this peaceful solution will lead to reunification or not. And my impression is that America has not yet been ready to accept the scenario of Taiwan’s “peaceful reunification” with Chinese mainland. (7) “Low politics” functional issues: A. Health Issues such as HIV/AIDs, AVIAN/Bird Flu. B. Natural Disaster such as hurricane, tsunami, earthquake. China and US share the similar views to prevent pandemic diseases from spreading and to strengthen international coordination and cooperation. C. Environmental protection such as global warming, gas emission, air pollution. There are many more consensuses than conflicts on these issues. (8) Human Rights/Democracy: This has been one of the most controversial issues in China-US Relations. After long and candid dialogue between both sides, some minimal consensus has reached that some basic human rights are universal and naturally fall into the constitutional protection of any modern government. ㈡ Sources of consensuses (1) Common Interests. At the material level, China and US Share widespread common interests, which is the bedrock of consensuses on the list of issues mentioned above, particularly on economic and trade issue. China is now the third largest U.S. trading partner; the U. S. is the second largest China trading partner. Their bilateral trade reached $211.6 billion last year. China is the second largest US national debtor holder in 2005 with $310.9 billion, only second to Japan. And the US is China’s one of the biggest FDI country. The two economies are increasingly interdependent and complementary. China’s low-priced high-quality products have saved U.S. consumers $600 billion over the past decade, representing an average of $625 saving per household per year. And among of more than 50,000 U.S.-invested businesses, 75% percent are profitable and every dollar invested in China gains the higher profit than that invested elsewhere. China holds U.S. national debt helps American stabilize American currency. On the other side, China’s economic development could not be separated from US investment, technology, market, and strong economy. (2) Common public philosophy. While the common economic interests are tangible and convincible, and highly evaluated in China-US Relations, pragmatism as public philosophy is seldom seen and referred as consensus. In my eyes, this is particularly important to the China-US Relations walking through the valleys and sometimes even heated tensions and crisis, such as in 1989 (Tiananmen accident and American economic sanctions ensued), in 1996 (China’s missile excise caused by America granting Li Denghui visa for his U.S. trip in 1995), in 1998 (American bombing China’s Embassy in former Yugoslavia Federation), in 2001 (American Espionage plane flying across the China’s border). Every accident produced backlash of large waves of nationalistic feelings on both sides but then incrementally settled down quietly without deviating China-US Relations from the right track. Pragmatism, raison d’étate and flexibility of the both countries’ leaders adeptly solved the conflicts and managed crisis inadvertently and unexpectedly, overcoming the xenophobia and nationalism pervasive in the press media. The mind-set dominated on both sides is result-oriented, to get things done. (3) Fundamental common goals of two countries. Peace, security and prosperity are the fundamental common goals of two countries. American society offers the countless opportunities for “American Dreamers” to realize their self-made successes. As a developing country, it was a longtime dream for Chinese people to realize “Four Fields of Modernization” (in Industry, in Agriculture, in Denfense and in Science and Technology). It was firstly put forward by Premier Zhou Enlai in 1964, trying to catch up with England and surpass the U.S. Even at that time when the US and China has not had formal official relationship), the U.S. has become a role model for China to set up its grandiose and splendid goals. In today’s fashionable words, China and American share the same modernity and head for a much brighter future. This modernity belongs to the ideas of Enlightenment, basically believing we will and can make constant progress in the world history of human being. And the important fact is that both China’s economic reform and opening-up national policy began to parallel with the normalization of China-US relations. Learning from the U.S. and American Studies in China has played a big role in China’s transformation from a relatively traditional society to a modern society. And proudly speaking, China today is heading in the correct direction and on the right side of history. China’s resurgence is hopeful and realizable. ㈢ Causes of Conflicts (1) Different historical experience. China enjoyed preeminence and pride for two thousand years and suffered from humiliation of foreign invasion and oppression for more than one hundred years, which resulted in a feeling of victimhood. This contrasting experience has made Chinese sensitive to the sovereignty, security, integrity and cultural pride. America is a young country of less than three hundred years, founded on the ideas of freedom, equality, and self-governance. America’s history was from victory to victory, standing up stronger from Independent Revolution, 1812 British war, Civil War, Spanish War, The First World War, The Second World War, Persian Gulf War, Kosovo War, Afghanistan War (with only three exceptions: Korean War, Vietnam War, and Iraq War). So Americans are confident enough to be arrogant in the eyes of other peoples around the world. The motto “the sky is the limit” in American West expresses this triumphalism. (2) Different political culture. Feudalist history threw long shadow in Chinese political development. “Rule of Man” (“Ren Zhi’) rather than rule of law (“Fa zhi”) has deep roots in the Chinese political culture. The words of the Emperor were the laws during the past dynasties. The officials usually claim by themselves or are regarded by others to be superior to the walks of life and they enjoy more entitlements than the average persons. Men are not born equal in the hierarchical environment. An old saying goes like this, “If you are a dragon, the posterities born by you are the dragons. If you are phoenix, the posterities born by you are phoenixes. If you are rat, the posterities born by you can dig the holes.” (In Chinese pronunciation, it is “Long Sheng Long, Feng Sheng Feng, Laoshu Shengde Hui Dadong”.)The higher level of the official position one occupies the more noble he is. So the Chinese have been addicted to the officialdom among all walks of life. Once you have an official position, you own everything you want (in Chinese it pronounces as “You Quan Jiu You Yi Qian”). In American political culture, the ideas of “rule of law” and “equal justice before the law” have been embroiled in the mind of everybody. All persons must abide by the law whoever he is president or other high official. Whoever breaks the law will be sued by the prosecutors and punished by law. (3) Different political system. Simply speaking, China has one-party centralized government with the cooperation of other parties and with the system of people’s congress as the legislative body, nominally the supreme power organ. Actually, the Communist Party plays a very active and very import role in Chinese politics and policy. The Standing Committee of China’s Communist Party’s Central Committee’s Political Bureau is the power center of China, from which comes policy output and strategy. And the party organizations are top-down from the central to the village. All the party organizations must follow the central party’s leadership. America has two-party decentralized government with two chambers as legislative body. Gubernatorial governments and local governments are independent from federal government respectively. The same party’s organizations are diverse and independent both vertically and horizontally. Power is separated between executive, legislative and judicial branches and balanced each other. The government is limited by Constitution. Anyone has not enough power to make a law alone. The president cannot enforce the policy he initiatives unless his policy wins approval of the Congress. The conflicts of Taiwan Issue in China-US Relations partly stem from the different political system. It was difficult and annoyed for Chinese leaders to understand why American presidents could not keep their promise on Taiwan issue. The classic example is Li Denghui’s visa for the U.S. trip. Secretary of State Christopher promised Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qishen that the U.S. would not ratify the visa to Li Denghui in Hague, not allowing him to visit the U.S. But under great pressures of Congress, with the resolutions support for his trip passed overwhelming in both chambers, Clinton Administration had to give in and break his word out of political calculations. (4) Different Political Process. In China, the political process is largely controlled by governmental officials, particularly in the case of foreign policy making process. Once the policy is made, it is usual to send it out from top to down, from Foreign Ministry to other Ministries. But in American political environment, inputs in the political process are diverse: different Departments, media, Congress, NGO, interest groups, etc. In comparison, China’s foreign policy is well-coordinated and spoken in one voice. The US foreign policy are frequently disrupted by sorts of factors although the president has leeway in making foreign policy. No wonder Chinese specialists observe that American presidents usually tend to develop a stable relationship, but Congress always try to put the brakes on it and exaggerate the negative side and effects of China. While State Department is inclined to solve the disputes by dialogue and consultation, DoD (Department of Defense) always shows hawkish attitude. Big Business usually support normal trade with China whereas Big Labor opposes Federal agencies’ buying products made in China. US China policy is mixed and confused to Chinese leaders while China’s US policy is frequently clear-cut and unambiguous. (5) Different value system. Although Chinese appreciate freedom and equality too, the nuclear core among Chinese value system is not freedom but “He”, representing harmony, reconciliation and peace, such as the proverb saying “He Wei Gui,” meaning by “Harmony is precious” or “Peace is precious”. While in the west, it is said: “Without freedom, I would rather die.” (6) Different national conditions (SES). Population: China has 1.3 billion, more than 4 times of American populations. Livable space: China has half of American space. Geography: China is bordered or neighbored with several major powers: in the North, Russia; in the South, India; in the East, Japan. America is bordered with relatively weak and friendly countries with Canada in the North, Mexico in the South. Per capita of GDP: Chinese has less than $2000 while American has $40,000. Development degree: China is a developing country with peasants accounting for more than half of its population; US is a developed country with less than 2% of its total population. Chinese society is experiencing urbanization as well as modernization, transforming traditional village communities into urbanized communities. (7) Different approaches to address the issues and different diplomatic styles. Owing to its status in the world and its past historical experience, China’s diplomacy emphasizes “smiles” and “mutual respect”, “mutual consultation”, and “mutual reconciliation”. It seldom makes threatening postures toward other countries. While America has enjoyed the primacy, it is used to doing its diplomacy carrying “carrot” in one hand and “big stick” in another hand. When its carrot could not work quickly, America always turns and resorts to the economic sanctions or the use of forces on the target country. (8) Different foreign policy priorities and different agendas. Taiwan Issue doesn’t involve US vital interest but it involves China’s core interest. Spreading democracy around the world is related to American core value and “Destiny Mission” in American’s foreign agenda, while reunification is at the core in China’s value galaxy. ㈣ Consensus rebuilding and expanding As mentioned above, there are a lot of consensuses in China-US Relations. But if we want to charter this relationship smoothly into the unpredictable Pacific era, it is unavoidable and fundamental for both countries to continue to reach more consensuses in a variety of areas. In my view, the most important thing is to establish confidence and make sure that either China or the U.S. must be heard and felt listened to with an open mind. In this case, both need to substitute win-lose mindset with win-win mindset, looking for the most acceptable options for similar reasons or logically sound foundations. Let me give some examples: Strategically, how does US “listen” to China’s argument “peaceful development”? Before 2004, “Peace and development are the two main subjects of contemporary world” were usually fashionable opening sentence in Chinese official foreign policy declarations and documents. But most foreign observers took it more as a slogan rather than a national strategy statement. But “peaceful rise/development” was formally and officially put forward by President Hu Jingtao at Bo’ao Forum in April, 2004. This time, foreign policy analysts began to take it seriously. It promulgates that China’s development is peaceful and won’t challenge any reigning power, unlike Prussia and Japan in the past world history. Frankly speaking, this argument seems to be self-evident. Reason one is: China’s development has not reduced the advantage of America in world economy. In the past couple decades, America’s share of world GDP has been swelling rather than shrinking, from one quarter in 1985 to one third in 2005. Reason two is: Contrary to the appearance which results in many concerns of Congress and DoD, America’s influence is still very dominant and very strong while China is increasing its influences in global arena, particularly in Asia-Pacific area. Almost every major power has better bilateral relationship with United States than their bilateral relationship with any other power. America enjoys unprecedented strategic position and advantage in the world, with 3000 military bases around the world and 370,000 military person’s deployment in 120 countries. After Afghanistan war and Iraq war, American entered Middle Asia, South-Western Asia, and Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia. Recent research finds that China doesn’t increase its influence at the expense of American interest. In foreseeable future, America is the still the lonely Superpower which has the greatest influences on shaping the international order. China is sincerely hoping that its development won’t be perceived a threat to any country. How does China view “American global strategy readjustment”? American claims the new readjustment is fit for the new demands of global anti-terrorism. Geographically, these readjustments and redeployments of overseas military actually happened to take place around China, so-called “arch of instability” from South-Western Asian –South Asian-South Eastern Asian to Eastern Asian, North Eastern Asian, seeming to “hedge” or “contain” China’s power projection overseas. But after you think carefully, these areas are terrorist pervasive areas. If history is a guide, America did not block the development of Germany; neither constrained the rapid development of Japan after World War Two. And looking around the globe, the well-done countries are usually those which have good relationship with the US and most of the poor countries which has hostile relationship with the U.S. From this point, America’s strategy readjustment is not a threat to China’s peaceful development. This strategic mutual confidence will lead to strategic consensus and rationale on which a long-term fundamental China-US relations strategic frame has been founded. At present, strategic dialogue between US-China is very helpful to increase and build mutual trust. In the trade and economic area, differences and conflicts are natural, expected and even unavoidable. Both countries need to seek them out, value them, and then reach a feasible or satisfactory solution with a wide range of approaches and opinions. In the functional issue areas such as environmental protection, global warming, cleaning and high-efficient energy, preventing and controlling the fatal disease HIV/AIDS and AVIAN’s spreading, transnational crimes, etc, consensuses expanding are not only probable but also imperative for both countries to address those problems. ㈤ Conflicts controlling and reducing China has two idioms related consensuses and conflicts of opinion, “Qiou Tong Cun Yi” (“Seeking for consensuses while tabling the differences on the shelf”) and “He Er Bu Tong” (Co-existence in Harmony while maintaining respective differences). These cultural heritage and tradition aim at bringing up a world of harmony and peace despite of various opinions and conflicting views. Despite that we can pursue more consensuses in China-US Relations; it is inevitable that a lot of divergent opinions or conflicts simultaneously exist. (1) The gap between values is bridging with the improvement of mutual understanding and mutual learning process. The different views on human rights and other issues are caused by the domestic factors. China is rapidly changing and transforming domestically. And its views are constantly changing and upgrading. At the beginning of 1990s, China did not even admit human rights as universal value, rather criticized it as “the capitalist human rights”. Nowadays China’s government is conscious that human rights are universal and human rights protection has been written into Chinese Constitution (Constitution of P.R.C., 4th version). China’s view of religion has changed. In the past, religion was simply criticized as “spiritual opium’ or “superstition”, but now China acknowledges that religion has played positive role in social harmony and spiritual peace. (2) The differences between two countries in political ideas and political cultures are shrinking. China has learned of the implications of key political concepts such as “Constitutional government”, “Limited government”, “judicial independence”, “due process”, “government’s accountability”, “rights to the public information”, “public hearing”, “social justice”, “social security” , “civil society”, “NGO”, voluntarism. The obvious change is that democracy is not called as “Capitalist democracy” contrary to “socialist democracy”. Democracy is referred as the symbol of political civilization and improving democracy has been put on the list as one of basic goals of China’s development. (3) Differences on the list of issues vary. Some can be controlled, some can be reduced, and some can be compromised. The point to deal with the conflicts is to limit the conflicts within the boundary of the specific issue in order that these conflicts will not rock the whole boat of China-US Relations or spill over. Conclusions China and the United States are the biggest benefactors and responsible stakeholders in the international order. Their bilateral relationship is the biggest determinant in shaping the future world. The broad consensuses (particularly in strategic area) have formed a sound strategic rationale for a stable basic framework of China-US relations. While there are many conflicts on the long list of issues caused by the differences of historical experience, political culture, political system, political process, and value system between two countries, there is a great room for communication, consultation, coordination and cooperation in various fields. And with the peaceful development of China, the consensuses between both countries can continue to be rebuilding and expanding and the differences of some specific issue can also be managed and reduced, without spilling over to be harmful for the general bilateral relationship. When we realistically analyze the complexity of China-US Relations, we reach such a conclusion to the questions debated respectively on both sides: Contrary to the general myths and impressions or perspectives, China’s resurgence has not harmed American interest and influences on world stage, and America’s global strategic readjustment has not contained China’s peaceful development. In this win-win interdependent game, China and US are not only responsible stakeholders but also constructive partners during globalization era.