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North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-U.S. Relations:A Chinese Perspective
作者:何兴强 来源:The Quarterly Journal of Defense Policy Studies, South Korea. 时间:2007-10-15
North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chinese Perspective 1)He Xingqiang* * Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, hexingqiang@gmail.com North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chinese Perspective Recent half-century history has proven that a stable Sino-U.S. relationship helped to create a favorable environment for concerning countries to form some types of framework to deal with conflicts or crisis happened in Northeast Asia. Positive Sino-American relations contributed considerably to resolving the second North Korean nuclear crisis and greatly fostered the issue to develop toward a peaceful solution. Meanwhile, since the first North Korean nuclear issue emerged in 1993, sustained cooperation between China and the United States on the nuclear issue has composed to be one of the most important aspects of China-U.S. relations. In short, a model of interaction, or even a benign circulation of mutual influence between North Korean nuclear issue and Sino-American relations emerged and continued to develop. During the process of dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue, China’s diplomacy has been experiencing a transition from traditional low-key to aggressively claiming its own material interest. China also showed itself as a responsible power by positively mediating and managing on the nuclear crises. Although direct bilateral talks between the U.S. and North Korea are the main driving force to recent dramatic progress in North Korean nuclear issue, China’s unique roles in organizing, sustaining talks and mediating the stances of key parties are irreplaceable Key Words: North Korean Nuclear Issue, North Korean Nuclear Test, Sino-American Relations, Six-Party Talks, February 13 Joint Document Abstract 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 64 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective Chiefly characterized by the relationship between the biggest developing country and the only superpower around the globe, China-U.S. relations are broadly viewed as the most important bilateral relations in Northeast Asia and even in the world. The ups and downs, cooperation and conflicts happened during the intercourse of the two countries, to a great extent, determined the peace and stability in Northeast Asian region. Historically, the 1950-1953 Korean War pushed China and the United States into direct military clash. Since then Sino-American relations developed into a 22-year-long confrontation, in which China had to face the U.S. containment policy and the two states held deep hostile attitude toward each other. As a result, China had been isolated from the international community for two decades. The antagonism between US and China continued until 1972 that Richard Nixon’s ice-breaking visit to China ended the hostile stalemate. Following normalization of China-U.S. relations in the end of 1978, a new era of security and peace in Northeast Asia appeared and it greatly eased international tension in the region. In post-Cold War period, Sino-American relations experienced an eventful time compared to 1980’s and continued to be the most foundational bilateral relations in Northeast Asia. The end of Cold War did not consequently bring termination of the separation of North and South Koreas. The divisive state of Korean Peninsula remained after the Cold War and it exists as few framework of the vestige of major power blocks’ confrontation. Since firstly emerged in the early years of 1990’s, the North Korean nuclear issue gradually evolved into the core concern to the peace, security and stability in Northeast Asia. In fact, when China involved in solving the first North Korean nuclear crisis in 1993, maintaining stable and positive relations with the United States has already been the top concern. China advanced the cooperation with the U.S. and fostered it being an increasingly stronger strategic foundation for China-U.S. relations. Meanwhile, during the process of dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue, China realized its 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 65 involvement in North Korean nuclear crisis actually has its own national interest. Therefore, China showed, to some degree, diplomatic transition from traditional low-profile to aggressively claiming its own material interest. China began to publicly claim its interests in Korean Peninsula, that is, to keep denuclearization of the peninsula and maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia. This article tries to analyze how the Sino-American relationship developed on the path of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue and in turn, how this notorious nuclear issue has been influenced by evolvement of Sino-American relationship. Since the first North Korean nuclear issue emerged in 1993, especially after September 11 terrorist attacks, Sino-American relations become more and more consolidated because of the sustained cooperation between China and the United States on the nuclear issue. The two nations’ cooperation on Northeast Asia security, especially on the North Korean nuclear issue, constitutes to be one of the most important aspects of China-U.S. relations. On the other hand, a stable Sino-American relationship after 9/11 is vital on managing North Korean nuclear crisis and peace, security and stability in Northeast Asia. When the first North Korean nuclear crisis surfaced in 1993, through cooperation on the crisis, both America and China realized their common interests on regional peace, security and stability. China understood that seeking cooperation in security arena is essential in developing a stable and healthy Sino-American relationship. Under circumstances of the U.S. anti-terrorism war after September 11 terrorist attack, China and America cooperated closely on managing the second Korean nuclear crisis in 2003 which becomes the most important aspect of the relations between the two countries. The North Korean nuclear issue provided China and the U.S. a new platform on which the two nations began to cooperate effectively and reciprocally. Due to this stable and cooperative China-U.S. relations and the specific cooperative mechanism, i.e. the Six-Party Talks, The North Korean nuclear issue, had not evolved into direct military conflicts between the United States 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 66 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), commonly known as North Korea. On the contrary, in the context of stable Sino-U.S. relations, the Six-Party Talks offered a new type of coordinating mechanism which kept the issue from going the irrecoverable way: going to war. 1993-1994 North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Sino-American Relations After the Cold War ended in late 1980s and early 1990s, China's importance in the U.S. global strategy declined. Compounded with Tiananmen incident, China-US relations slid into a new low tide period in which the bilateral ties were ill defined. After President Clinton came to power, human rights issue was overemphasized and Clinton Administration’s policy that linked trade and human rights in 1993 obstructed development of Sino-American relations. Together with other bilateral conflicts in 19931), China-U.S. relations plummeted into a new bottom. Meanwhile, the North Korean nuclear issue surfaced and little by little evolved into an international crisis. It was regarded that North Korea’s nuclear program development began in 1960’s. Although North Korea signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in the mid-1980s, it has always been refusing the inspection of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).2) According to released satellite images by U.S. Department of Defense in April, 1990, DPRK was developing nuclear weapon hence the United States began to press the North Korea to abandon such activities.3) After several investigations on North Korea’s nuclear program, IAEA found the DPRK 1) These bilateral conflicts include Beijing’s failed bid to host 2000 Olympics for American Congress’s resolutions to object strongly to, the fruitless pursuit of the Yinhe (The Galaxy, a Chinese ship) with its allegedly dangerous chemical cargo, as well as Clinton’s meeting with Dalai Lama, and so on. 2) “The North Korean Nuclear Issue,” from www.newhuanet.com. Available at: http://news.xinhuanet. com/ziliao/2003-01/08/content_683434.htm 3) Zhao Xuegong, Huge Transition: America’s Policy toward East Asia after the World War II (Tianjin, Tianjin People’s Press, 2002), p398. 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 67 possibly had separated more plutonium than it stated in its Initial Report4) to IAEA in 1992. At the same time the USA provided the IAEA with satellite images showing two structures that were not listed in the DPRK’s Initial Report. Both structures are the type of facility where nuclear waste is customarily stored. IAEA concluded that it is clear that the DPRK authorities had attempted to disguise the function of these two facilities by planting trees and using other camouflage. In February 1993, the IAEA demanded a “special inspection” and set a term of three months for the DPRK to comply. The U.S. asked Japan and South Korea to refuse to improve their relations with DPRK before the nuclear program issue being resolved.5) These tough measures aroused DPRK’s strong response. On 12 March 1993, Pyongyang declared its withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This action shocked the international community and made situations in Korean Peninsula strained abruptly. Facing pending disaster, the new Clinton Administration sought to convince Pyongyang not to defy their international order. Constructive intervention by China was one of few limited choices to achieve the goal. The Pentagon contended that only China has influence on the North Koreans so it advocated to use China as intermediary to persuade Pyongyang not to invite a war. Allegedly, Secretary of Defense Aspin raised this proposal at a meeting in March 1993.6) Although there is huge political hindrance caused by human rights and most-favored-nation status disputes between China and the U.S., the two nations had begun to cooperate on managing the North Korean nuclear crisis based on the common interest of maintaining peace and stability 4) Article III.4 of the NPT stipulates that a non-nuclear-weapon State acceding to the Treaty must bring into force a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA. The agreement required the DPRK to send the IAEA an “Initial Report” on all nuclear material to be subject to safeguards in the country. The DPRK submitted its report on 4 May1992. “The DPRK's Violation of its NPT Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA”, Available at: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaDprk/index.shtml. 5) Tao Wenzhao, A History of Sino-American Relations (1972-2000), (Shanghai, Shanghai People’s Press, 2004), p242. 6) James Mann, About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, From Nixon to Clinton. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999, p288. 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 68 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective in Northeast Asia. China performed a positive influence on helping to bring about negotiations between North Korea and the U.S.7), which reduced the tension of Korean Peninsula and eventually led to the Agreed Framework between the U.S. and North Korea in 1994. The emerging of North Korean nuclear issue in fact provided a chance for China and the United States to improve their relations at that time. The fanatical Pyongyang regime’s nuclear program inadvertently fostered the cooperation between Beijing and Washington in the Post-Cold War era. In the initial several years of 1990s, due to clashes between China and the U.S. on human rights, as well as decline of strategic relations, to keep Sino-American relations moving forward, cooperating in security on regional and global stage instead, together with trade relations, constituted the most significant basics. After Tiananmen incident, China’s insisting on its reform and open policy was facing severe sanctions by western countries.8) One of China’s national strategies is to center on economic development, while maintaining peaceful and stable outside environment, especially favorable neighboring surroundings. China’s mediating efforts on North Korean nuclear crisis was in China’s national interest. Helping to peacefully resolving North Korean nuclear crisis not only conforms to China’s effort on maintaining a sustainable and peaceful environment for its economic development, but also provides a chance for China to enhance cooperation with the U.S. on regional security. From the U.S. perspective, security engagers in the administration, like William Perry, Deputy Sectary of Defense, Charles W. Freeman Jr., Assistant Sectary 7) Oberdorfer demonstrate the importance of China in the North Korean nuclear crisis of 1993-1994. Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas(Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley, 1997), 249-368. David Lampton also proved that China helped bring the North Korean nuclear program under international supervision in the 1994 Agreed Framework. David M.Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams: Managing U.S.-China Relations, 1989-2000, the Regents of the University of California, California, U.S.A. 2001. p84. 8) In the shadow of “6.4 incident (Tiananmen incident)” and consequent sanctions imposed by western countries, opposite strengths in China had argued fiercely whether China should continue its “reform and openness policy”. At last, Deng Xiaoping’s Nanxun Talks in 1992(Talks during inspection tour to Southern China) symbolized the pro-openness policy advocates prevailed. 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 69 of Defense for International Security Affairs, were increasingly worried about continuing isolation from China and its military establishment. They thought engaging with China only limited to trade and investment would do nothing to reduce China’s worry – China has deep worry about containment conducted by American by keeping China weak and divided. China’s cooperation on dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis became one of the most important argument by security engagers in Pentagon to counter or balance security disputes between the two countries. For them, security engagement would not only provide opportunities to address specific issues but also promote transparency, build trust, and arrest a drift toward conflict.9) The cooperation on North Korean nuclear issue became an important promoter which made Sino-U.S. relations began to break human rights stalemate and to be back to normal track. 1994 Agreed Framework did not consequently result in North Korean nuclear issue went smoothly. The U.S.-DPRK relations were complicated. The great hostility and mistrust between the two countries are hard to melt. Meanwhile, Sino-American relations to a great degree got rid of human rights harassment after Clinton claimed ‘de-link’ policy in 1994. The relations, however, then stepped into security conflicts in Taiwan Straits in 1995-1996. Although China and the U.S. continued to cooperate on North Korean nuclear issue after Agreed Framework being signed, the Sino-American relations were dominated by security conflict in Taiwan issue. It demonstrated that security cooperation have not yet constituted an important aspect of the relations. In the last three years of Clinton Administration, the two countries further realized the significance of cooperation on security issue. The U.S. cooperated with China in the wake of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear detonations of May 1998, which demonstrated both countries desire to avoid a destabilizing nuclear arms race 9) Nancy Tucker, “The Clinton Years”, Ramon H. Myers, Michel C. Oksenberg, and David Shambaugh, eds., Making China Policy: Lessons from the Bush and Clinton Administrations(New York: Rowman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2001), p51. 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 70 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective on the India subcontinent.10) On the North Korean nuclear issue, China modulated its food and resource shipments to North Korea in an attempt to moderate Pyongyang’s behavior, thereby seeking to stabilize a seriously deteriorating situation in the DPRK.11) Besides cooperation on regional hot issues, the two countries’ coordination on global security issues demonstrated their common interests. China did not use its veto against American leading Persia Gulfwar and offered helps on peace keeping in Cambodia and Haiti. With George W. Bush coming to power in 2001 and the Bush Administration labeling China as a “strategic competitor”, together with EP-3 spy plane incident in April the same year, bilateral relations between the two nations had been pushed downward to another frozen point since 1999. The hawkish conservatives in Bush Administration had been brewing new policies against Russia, China and North Korea. In conservatives’ eyes, these nations are the proliferators of missile techniques and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their behaviors account for the instability of world power balance. Analysts from both China and the United States worried that the Sino-American relations would experience a new tough period. However, September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States changed dramatically the possible developing direction of the relations. 2002-2003 North Korean Nuclear crisis and Sino-American Relations After 9/11, Sino-American relations entered into a stable phase, compared to 1990s. The post 9/11 era witnessed a significant improvement in ties between the two countries. The September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States certainly played a great role on pushing forward China and American bilateral relations. In the context 10) David M. Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams, p.70. 11) David M. Lampton, Same Bed, Different Dreams, p.84. 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 71 of counter-terrorism war and non-proliferation becoming America’s primary strategy, China was no longer viewed as a direct threat in the United State. In only one year from October 2001 to October 2002, Mr. Bush met with Chinese President four times. Moreover, President Bush met China’s new president, Hu Jintao, in three different continents up through mid-2003. High-level meeting between the two countries were becoming frequent. Under cooperative atmosphere based on anti-terrorism, Secretary of State Colin Powell described U.S.-China relations was “thriving” and said the cooperative relationship between the United States and China is growing at a remarkable pace in 2003.12) China and the U.S. expanded cooperation after 9/11. China actively cooperated with the United States in anti-terrorism, non-proliferation and the Iraqi issue. China has been helpful in the war on terrorism. China encouraged its old ally Pakistan to cooperate with Washington when the United States moved against Taliban, also helped on stabilizing the volatile situation between Pakistan and India in late 2001 and 2002, a conflict that some feared might cross the nuclear threshold. Furthermore, in the wake of 9/11, Beijing has helped Washington build institutions to thwart terrorist activities.13) On American’s war against Saddam Hussein, China proved less troublesome to Washington in the run-up to the Iraq war than some of America’s longtime allies, most notably France and Germany. In November 2002, China supported United Nations Resolution 1441, which endorsed “serious consequences” if Saddam Hussein failed to comply. Since George W. Bush won the presidency, especially after 911, American policy toward DPRK turned tougher. President Bush defined DPRK as one of “axes of evil” 12) “U.S.-China Cooperative Relationship Is Growing Fast, Powell Says”, November 13, 2003. Available at http://usinfo.state.gov 13) David M. Lampton and Richard Daniel Ewing, The U.S.-China Relationship Facing International Security Crises. Published by The Nixon Center, 1615 L Street, N.W., Suite 1250 Washington, DC, 20036. Available at www.nixoncenter.org 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 72 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective state in the address of State Union in January, 2002. The notorious address, plus Bush Administration’s other tough measures towards Pyongyang such as “regime change” policy, made Kim Jong II realize that the American threat was urgent and serious. North Korea responded drastically and took initiative to declare to the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly who visited Pyongyang in October, 2002 that it had all along conducted secretly uranium enrichment and other programs which violated the 1994 Agreed Framework. Pyongyang declared to withdraw from Non-Proliferation Treaty in January 2003 and announced to restart the nuclear program which could quickly turn into production. Kim Jong II threatened that if America and international community attack its nuclear facilities or impose economic sanctions, North Korea can not guarantee what result would happen. The North Korea-U.S. bilateral relations deteriorated. The second Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis emerged. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions have brought it to the brink of conflict with the United States. For the United States in post 9/11 atmosphere, one of the top priorities was to get Pyongyang keep its promise of abandoning acquiring nuclear weapons. American understood no other nation has as much influence in North Korea as China does. China’s cooperation and initiative on this issue is what the U.S. hoped and wanted, especially when the U.S. was stuck in Iraqis chaos shortly after the invasion in 2003. For the purpose, the U.S. had urged China to utilize the influence it possessed to press or persuade Pyongyang to relinquish possession of nuclear weapons. Under circumstances of cooperation on regional and global issues after 9/11 between Beijing and Washington, China showed more initiatives on North Korean nuclear issue. China played an active diplomatic role. Since the second North Korean nuclear crisis broke out in late 2002, China had dispatched the then Vice Minister Dai Bingguo, as special envoy in July of 2003 to the U.S., DPRK to mediate the crisis.14) China has been 14) “The Chronicle of Events of the North Korean Nuclear Issue: 2003”, from Chinese Embassy at DPRK. Available at http://kp.chineseembassy.org/chn/ 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 73 extremely helpful to American interests in getting North Korea to the negotiating table. It also has put discreet, but effective, economic, diplomatic, and security pressures on the North Korea to agree to sit at a table. China has also encouraged North Korea to move in directions less self-destructive than its current course.15) China’s efforts are the most important factors for the first Six- Party Talk held in Beijing in August, 2003. Moreover, China was playing a positive role in pushing the United States to agree on a negotiating strategy that might be more productive than the Administration’s initial posture.16) The U.S. appreciated and encouraged China’s cooperation on North Korean nuclear issue. Before the second North Korean nuclear crisis broke out, China for a long time had been regarding the issue as an affair between U.S. and North Korea. The role China played in dealing with the issue is as a middleman. After 9/11, China’s role on North Korean nuclear issue has begun to change from a mere intermediary or a mediator, to an active participant and organizer. Several considerations described below account for the transition of China’s role on dealing with North Korean nuclear issue. The second North Korea nuclear crisis emerged in the wake of 9/11 terrorist attack. The United States primary strategic goals after 9/11 are anti-terrorism war and non-proliferation, which was estimated would last long and distracted American from strategically aiming to deal with China. Under the close cooperative atmosphere in post 9/11 era, China realized it has the chance to maintain a relatively peaceful long period, like 20 years to focus on domestic economic, social and political development. Chinese leaders defined the future twenty years as “strategic period.” The key for China reaching the goal is maintain a positive and stable, even cooperative relations with the United States. For China now, economic growth and social stability are top 15) David M. Lampton and Richard Daniel Ewing, The U.S.-China Relationship Facing International Security Crises. 16) Ibid. 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 74 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective concerns. The United States is a global leader in economics, education, culture, technology, and science. China, therefore, think it must maintain a close relationship with the United States if its modernization efforts are to succeed. From foreign policy’s angle, a stable Sino-U.S. relation is a key point for China striving for a favorable international environment which is regarded as outside guarantee for China achieving its top goals. In the Chinese view, it is the best time since 1989 for the development of bilateral common interest with the U.S. Under these considerations, therefore, China takes managing the nuclear crisis, mainly embodied hosting the Six-Party talks as a platform to enhance trust and cooperation with the United States. China’s comprehensive participation in dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis is also the reflection of China’s diplomatic transition from traditional low-profile to public claiming its own interest. A Chinese scholar wrote: “The decision by the Chinese government in May 2003 to mediate the North Korean nuclear crisis was a defining moment for Chinese diplomacy. It signaled that China would become more proactive and self-confident in its diplomatic efforts and strive to make innovative use of China’s rising international influence toward playing a positive role in maintaining the country’s important peripheral diplomacy.”17) On the North Korean nuclear issue, changing of China’s viewpoint demonstrates that China’s consideration had beyond the initial mediator to following responsible power in East Asia and around the world. China’s active participation and promotion of the Six-Party Talks is a way to demonstrate China’s image as a responsible power in the world. It can be analogized as China’s promise of not depreciating RMB in 1997-98 East Asia financial crises. Maintaining peace, stability and denuclearization in Korean Peninsula is in China’s primary material interest in the region. China put great efforts on the North Korean nuclear issue because it concerns China’s strategic security. China and the United 17) Zhu Feng, “Shift Tides: China and North Korea”, China Security, published by the World Security Institute, China Program. 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 75 States, Republic of Korea (ROK) and other countries share common interest on denuclearization of Korean Peninsula, which is another major reason that China pushes the Six-Party Talks actively. Based on common interest of denuclearization of Korean Peninsula, China cooperated with the United States, ROK and other countries in Northeast Asia and tried its best to strive for coming to a peaceful solution of Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. With involving deeply into the North Korean nuclear issue, China witnessed DPRK relentlessly developing its nuclear weapons program, especially after the second nuclear crisis broke out in 2002. China gradually felt that Pyongyang’s nuclear program might produce great negative influence on China’s national security. China sees ever more clearly the dangers of proliferation to its own core interests, not the least of which would be impetus to further military development in Japan and the probable nuclearization of ROK.18) In another word, a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia would endanger greatly China’s national security and impede China’s effort to realize its top goals. Another Chinese national security consideration on the North Korea nuclear issue is to avoid the kind of social disintegration in North Korea that war or economic collapse could precipitate. Breakdown in the North could threaten the general stability of the region upon which China’s economic growth depends, and it could spew untold numbers of refugees into China that needs no more domestic challenges.19) According to its own experience, China sees the ultimate solution to North Korea issue is to encourage Pyongyang to realize soft land in economy and politics, which will benefit fundamentally to alleviate tense situation in Korean Peninsula. 18) Several Chinese scholars discussed the problem in their articles. Like Zhu Feng, “Shift Tides: China and North Korea” Zhang liangui, “Coping with a Nuclear North Korea”, China Security, published by the World Security Institute, China Program. 19) David M. Lampton and Richard Daniel Ewing, The U.S.-China Relationship Facing International Security Crises. 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 76 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective North Korea’s Nuclear Test in 2006 and Sino-American Relations After several year’s positive and stable development since 9/11 terrorist attacks, Sino-American relations are taking on a new feature. The relations are moving beyond the bilateral scope to cover regional and global security and economic matters. The two countries cooperate on a broad range of regional and global issues. Specifically to say, cooperation and consensus between the two sides in terms of counter-terrorism, nonproliferation, management of Korean Peninsula nuclear crisis, and the maintenance of stability in the Middle East are on the rise, and so on. On September 21, 2005, Robert B. Zoellick, former Depute Secretary of State, advanced “responsible stakeholder”, which was a new concept in American policy towards China. Its implication is that U.S. government more emphasis more cooperation with China on world affairs. Chinese government also responded to Zoellick’s speech positively. In November, 2005, Chinese President Hu Jintao pointed out, when he meet President Bush in Beijing, Sino-U.S. relations have gone beyond bilateral relations and have global significance sense.20) President Hu Jintao made his intentions clear during his state visit to the United States in April, 2006. “Sharing extensive and important common strategic interests, our nations should be not only stakeholders, but also constructive cooperators,” Hu said at the time. In response, U.S. President George Bush acknowledged that the Sino-U.S. trade relationship had “become even stronger”.21) All of these indicate enhancing cooperation between the two countries on international and regional affairs, including the North Korean nuclear issue, has become a new positive point of Sino-U.S. relation and one of most important foundations of the relations. Among these issues, cooperation on Korean Peninsula nuclear issue outstands as 20) “Hu Jintao talks with Bush, Advancing Five Suggestions on Developing Sino-American Relations”, November 20, 2005. Available at : http://www.chinanews.com.cn//news/2005/2005-11-20/8/654110.shtml. 21) “Hu Jintao meets Bush in Washington”, April 21, 2006 Available at: http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/ english/news/newsDetail.jsp?id=220104&articleId=348623 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 77 one of the most important aspects for Sino-U.S. relations. Some scholars from both China and abroad even joked about Bush Administration “outsourced its North Korea policy to China.”22) This view, to a great extent, illustrates American’s dependence on China’s effort on managing the North Korean nuclear issue. North Korea, however, kept defying the international community since 2005 by declaring its possession of nuclear weapons on February 10, 2005, testing launch missiles on July 5, 2006, as well as worst, brazenly carrying out a nuclear test on October 10, 2006. All these Kim Jong II regime’s defiant behaviors put firstly China, the host of Six-Party Talks, into an awkward position. These tests damaged China’s credibility as an intermediary and impaired its presumed influence on North Korea. North Korean missile launch was also a spur to the emerging escalation of military confrontation which would pose a serious threat to China achieving its goal: peace and stability in the region. Unprecedented tough policies were taken by China to respond to Pyongyang’s flagrant defiance. For the first time, the Chinese premier openly demanded North Korea to halt its erroneous action. On June 28, 2006, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao openly called on North Korea to stop the test launch in an attempt to avoid Chinese domestic alarm at growing tensions in the Sino-DPRK relationship.23) Following both the missile and nuclear tests, China voted in favor of UN Security Council Resolutions 1695, 1705 and 1718, clearly indicating that Beijing is seeking new policies to deal with North Korea. As for the United States, North Korean nuclear test was also a slap in the face. It clearly demonstrated that American policy toward North Korea failed totally. Non-proliferation regime the U.S. took great efforts to maintain had been broken by North Korea’s nuclear detonation. The United States 22) George Bush’s Unfinished Asian Agenda, by Robert M. Hathaway May 13, 2005. At a domestic conference the author of this article participated in Beijing in 2006, some Chinese scholars also talked about the conception. 23) “Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Urged North Korea to refrain from missile testing”, from http:// finance.sina.com.cn, June 28, 2006. Available at: http://finance.sina.com.cn/forex/forexroll/20060628/1406769768.shtml. Also available at: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/06/28/china-north-korea.html 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 78 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective promoted the United Nations Security Council pass the resolutions to impose sanction against Pyongyang. Risking condemnation and sanction by international community, North Korea conducted the nuclear test. This reveals that Pyongyang leaders long ago had deliberately planed to develop and possess nuclear weapons. Throughout the past years of negotiations, North Korea obscured its real intentions and deluded all the concerned countries into believing that it could be persuaded to give up its nuclear program.24) Now Pyongyang has successfully stepped over the nuclear threshold. The most important object of North Korea developing nuclear weapons was to capture the attention of the United States and hold bilateral talks with American, as well as to use it as a leverage to strengthen its stance in negotiation with the U.S. Pyongyang considered that breaking the ice and improve relations with the U.S was the only way to guarantee its national security. As for the Six-Party Talks, North Korea regarded it as an opportunity and channel by which it can reconcile with the United States when bilateral talks were out of the question. Of course, it is also needed to play for time with the international community. With Sino-American relations moving to contain further security cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue in recent years, Pyongyang at present feel more uneasy about U.S-China relations. China and America’s coordination on their efforts of pressing North Korea to compromise on nuclear issue was not what Kim Jong II’ wanted to see. Under these circumstances, North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests imposed the great challenge to Sino-American relations. A nuclear-armed North Korea would test the extent of security cooperation in Sino-American relations. What makes situation complicated is, while stayed in New York for the first round of talks on normalizing bilateral relations with US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, 24) Zhang liangui, “Coping with a Nuclear North Korea”. 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 79 DPRK’s chief nuclear negotiator Kim Kye-gwan, the country's deputy foreign minister, claimed defiantly that China has no great influence on DPRK and criticized that America’s dependence on China to solve the nuclear is fruitless. The impact the North Korean nuclear test on Sino-American relations is limited. Firstly, China and the U.S. shared a crucial common interest in Korean Peninsula: denuclearization. The two nations had taken tough measure to respond to North Korea’s nuclear test. Secondly, the two nation’s cooperation on North Korean nuclear issue constitutes an important aspect in their relations. Both nations gave high credit on the cooperation. North Korea’s wedging into Sino-US relations would not affect easily. Thirdly, from American side, the United States still take China’s influence on Pyongyang as a key antidote to North Korean nuclear knot based on the flowing simple facts: China is most important food and oil supplying country to DPRK. China always has been in a special relationship with Pyongyang. Furthermore, facing domestic uncomfortable situation on making foreign policy, Bush Administration already had to take flexible measures to deal with North Korean nuclear issue. With leaving of New-conservatives, realistic policy advocacy group has dominated American foreign policy. Bush Administration continued to favor multilateral talks to try to find a way to solve the North Korean nuclear issue. President Bush had said the six-party talks were the best way to solve the North Korea problem, to which Japan and South Korea have agreed as well. At the same time, the U.S. commenced bilateral talks with Pyongyang which used to be taboo to Bush Administration. Christopher Hill iterated after Pyongyang’s nuclear test that America and China had a good cooperation on North Korean nuclear issue. As for Kim Kye-Gwan’s provocative words, no American policy makers would take it seriously. If Washington might come to terms with Pyongyang in any forms of bilateral agreement, it must be the Chinese and South Korean factors behind it. 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 80 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective Fourthly, for China, maintaining relations with the U.S. is an important goal of participation actively into North Korean nuclear issue. China will take great efforts to achieve the goal. And China’s role on keeping peace, stability in Northeast Asia, especially North Korean issue is acknowledged by American. Meanwhile, after initial sharp criticism on Pyongyang, Beijing would continue to support Kim Jong II regime, which will be analyzed next based on both from Chinese domestic politics and strategic consideration. China-DPRK relations are quite special. North Korea factor deeply affect China’s policy to the issue. The relationship is a kind of intimate relations between the two countries that were shaped up in the Korean War. Both sides call the relations as “blood-bounded friendship”. In fact, it has transformed into a part of China’s political culture. In addition, many Chinese including some strategists, grounded on historic experience and realistic consideration, view North Korea as China’s strategic buffer zone in Northeast Asia. After the Pyongyang’s nuclear test, China could employ ways of both persuading and exerting pressure on North Korea. However, further change is pretty difficult for Chinese government to make. North Korean provocation proved reversely that cooperation between China and America had come to a new level to which Pyongyang want to sabotage. The Sino-American relations, on the contrary, will benefit from common diplomatic experience of dealing with North Korean nuclear issue. And the two nations’cooperation in practices would contribute to building trust between them. Nevertheless, North Korean nuclear test did produce negative influence on Sino-American relations. The United States and China from the beginning have some divergence on the North Korean nuclear issue. The nuclear test outstand the difference between the two nations. As a neighbor of the Korean peninsula, China stresses stability and peaceful solution. However, U.S. options contain such as regime change and military strike, especially in the earlier period of the talks. China deems America’s 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 81 behavior, to some extent, is pushing North Korea to a corner. There is always great possibility that if further talks fail, China and the U.S. will certainly hold different stance on whether resolving the North Korean nuclear issue with use of force. Furthermore, although Sino-U.S. relations are kept stable in recent years, the logic of the U.S. policy towards China basically dose not change, which is still “hedge”, or engagement plus containment. In Chinese eye, the American’s hard hand towards China seems even strengthened, which include American military redeployment in Asian-pacific region, enhancing alliances with Japan, Australia, arms sale to Taiwan, taking double standards on Indian nuclear issue, etc. Generally speaking, both countries still lack mutual trust towards each other on strategic level, which in turn limits the cooperation between two countries on the North Korean nuclear issue. Conclusion Since the issue of freezing North Korea funds at the Macao-based Banco Delta Asia was settled, the North Korean nuclear issue has taken on a new look. North Korea vowed to start implementing the February 13 disarmament agreement and said it would start closing and sealing its nuclear facilities after it received one tenth of the 50,000 tons of promised fuel on July 6, 2007; North Korea shut down and sealed its Yongbyon reactor in July. On July 18, Dr Mohammed El Baradei, chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency, confirmed North Korea has shut down all five of its nuclear reactors at Yongbyon. At the delegation heads' meeting of the six-party talks on July 18-20, negotiators from North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, the United States and Russia laid a clear blueprint for moving toward the full denuclearization of the entire Korean Peninsula based on an “action-for-action” program. On September 27, the second phase of the sixth round of the six-party talks on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue opened in Beijing. Under February 13 Agreement reached by the six 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 82 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective countries, negotiators at the talks are trying to work out a roadmap for specific measures to disable the DPRK's nuclear facilities and a timetable for North Korea's declaring its nuclear programs. It was reportedly said that all parties in the meeting reached a common understanding on the second stage of denuclearization of Korean Peninsula, that is, to disable DPRK’s nuclear facilities and to declare its nuclear programs. All the events happened recently demonstrated that the North Korean nuclear issue is going on right track. It seems that people have reasons to be optimistic about the bright prospect of the North Korean nuclear issue. The dramatic change in North Korean nuclear issue is brought by the bilateral talks between the two key players, i.e. the U.S. and North Korea. Actually, before the second phase of the sixth round of the six-party talks began, the U.S. and North Korea held talks in Berlin in January, in New York in March. Just at the beginning of this September, the two countries talked again in the working group meeting. Through these talks, the two countries communicated fully and came to an understanding of each other’s position and bottom lines, which laid a solid foundation for recent smooth development in North Korean nuclear issue. Therefore, the U.S. and North Korean respectively started the first action-to-action step decreed in February 13 joint document. After North Korea shut down its Yongbyon reactors, President Bush ratified to provide $25 million of energy aid to North Korea, as an “action-to-action” step responding to North Korea’s activity. Recent encouraging progress in North Korean nuclear issue demonstrate again that only the bilateral negotiation between U.S. and North Koren, the direct parties in the nuclear issue, can bring material changes. US domestic pressures account for Bush Administration’s changing its stubborn policy of not directly talking with North Korea. Recent progress of North Korean nuclear issue is mostly promoted by bilateral talks between North Korea and U.S. This seems make China, the organizer and mediator, marginalized in the North Korean nuclear issue. Looking from another angle, however, 특집논문 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective 83 this seemingly marginalized status is understandable and China still has its unique role in the North Korean nuclear issue. For China, after all being a responsible mediator has been its main role in the North Korean nuclear issue. China lacks effective influence on the U.S. policy making on North Korean nuclear issue and hard to promote American to make policy change. On the other hand, China has always emphasized its friendship with North Korea. Therefore China would not exert coercive pressure to force Pyongyang to change its policies, such as means of cutting down its assistance or threatening to impose sanction to North Korea. Furthermore, the most important factor to settle the North Korean nuclear issue depends on whether the key players have enough political resolution, but not on diplomatic mediation from the third party. China performed well on its mediating. The six-party talks are still the most important multilateral mechanism to help to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. The Korean-Peninsula nuclear issue is a matter of extreme complexity, with various kinds of questions entangled with each other. At present, disabling DPRK’s nuclear facilities and declaring its nuclear programs are the key questions in the North Korean nuclear issue. These questions are very tough questions and any slight technical neglect could lead to a reverse of the progress on resolving the issue. How to keep North Korea and the U.S. go under the “action-to-action” model and therefore how to keep present progress go forward is vital to the nuclear issue settlement. China’s roles in organizing, sustaining talks and mediating the stances of key parties are not replaceable. Denuclearization of Korean Peninsula and demonstration of itself as a responsible power is what China has been strived for. So the best way for China to realize its interests is to perform more aggressively in mediation, embodying its roles as a responsible mediator. Furthermore, based on the Six-Party Talks, China is exploring a new future multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia, which would be extremely important to the peace and stability in the region. 국방정책연구 2007년 가을 84 North Korean Nuclear Issue in Sino-American Relations: A Chineses Perspective Summarizing from the Sino-American relations perspective: since first emerged in 1993, the North Korean nuclear issue gradually evolved into a key factor in Sino-American relations development. The nuclear crisis then offered a chance for the two countries to improve their relations. Meanwhile, positive Sino-American relations are crucial to peace and stability in Northeast Asia region. A stable China-U.S. relationship helped to create a favorable environment for concerning countries to form some types of framework to deal with conflicts or crisis happened in the region. It is proven that positive Sino-U.S. relations contributed considerably to resolving Korean Peninsula nuclear issue and it greatly fostered the issue to develop toward a peaceful solution. Since the second North Korean nuclear crisis in 2002, a model of interaction between North Korean nuclear issue and Sino-American relations formed. That is: cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue became an important aspect of Sino-American relations. A benign circulation of mutual influence emerged between Sino-American relations and the North Korean nuclear issue. Currently, bilateral talks between the two countries became a driving force to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. Under this new situation, how to view the Sino-American relations on the North Korean nuclear issue? Again, I would think the basic cooperation on the North Korean nuclear issue between China and the U.S. should not be changed. America still needs mediation and cooperation from China on this extremely complicated issue. China still wants to realize its goal of denuclearizing Korean Peninsula and maintaining the peace and stability in Northeast region. China and U.S have common interest on keeping Korean Peninsula nuclear free which is crucial to both countries’ national interests. The two nations not only had close cooperation in the past on the North Korean nuclear issue. But they in reality have much broader foundations, independent to the cooperation on North Korean nuclear issue, to maintain Sino-American relationships.
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