AMERCIAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Volume 20Number 3Fall 2006 Wang Jisi Hu Guocheng Zhao Mei Lu Ning, Wei Hongxia Li Hui Qin Qin Editor Associate Editor Managing Editor Editorial Assistants Editorial Technician Proofreader Board of Advisers Chen Baosen, Chen Xiaogong, Deng Shusheng, Ding Xinghao, Dong Hengxun, Gu Guoliang, Jin Canrong, Li Daokui, Mao Yushi, Niu Jun, Tao Wenzhao, Wang Xi, Wang Yizhou, Yang Yusheng, Yuan Ming, Zhang Youlun, Zhang Yuyan, Zhao Yifan, Zhou Qi, Zhu Shida, Zi Zhongyun AERMICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY is published jointly by the Chinese Association for American Studies and the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The content of the articles in this journal should not be construed as reflecting the views of either the Association or the Institute. MANUSCRIPTS SHOULD BE SENT TO: American Studies Quarterly at the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Addr. Dong Yuan, No. 3 Zhang Zizhong Rd., Beijing 100007, China). SUSCRIPTIONS: call (8610) 6400-0071 Fax: (8610) 6400-0021 Email: zhaomei@cass.org.cn http://www.mgyj.com ISSN1002-8986Copyright 1987-2006 American Studies Quarterly Printed in Beijing, China AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Fall 2006Vol. 20, No. 3 ARTICLES A Cumulative Civilization Development Model: An Important Feature of American Civilization He Shunguo (7) The article is aimed at studying the cumulative feature in the development of American civilization. The uniqueness in the development of American civilization is that the nation constructed its almost perfect national institutions and structure from its creation. In doing so, the American Constitution, directly or indirectly, preconceived two mechanisms that would facilitate the accumulation and development of American civilization, namely, the Article on the amendment of the Constitution and “judicial review” power of the Supreme Court. However a good mechanism does not necessarily lead to its being used in practice. Here lies another special feature in the development of American civilization. Not long after America’s independence, in the legal field there was a transformation from “natural law” to “social law”. It is this “social law” that lays the foundation for the creative employment of the two mechanisms. Foreign Policy DecisionMaking Models and Analysis on Determining Factors of American Arms Sale Policy toward Taiwan Zhang Qingmin & Luo Binhui(29) Based on an analysis of the decisionmaking process of the American government in arms sale to Taiwan since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the article employs the rational behavior model, the transagency politics model and the bureaucratic politics model to explore US policy of arms sale to Taiwan. The author holds that each of the three models only partially explains US policy but none of them alone would give a complete explanation. Only by combining the three and taking into consideration of all factors influencing foreign policy decisionmaking can we make a relatively comprehensive appraisal of US policy of arms sale to Taiwan. The United States and the Coercive Diplomacy Theory Qian Chuntai(49) On the basis of currently available source materials in the United States, the article reviews the definition, effect, and limitation of coercive diplomacy, analyzes the factors that lead to the success or failure of coercive diplomacy, and evaluates the current state and essence of research in coercive diplomacy in the United States. The author holds that the focus of research in the United States is on the factors leading to the success or failure of coercive diplomacy, and that such research work has contributed to American foreign policy decisionmaking. The United States is a strong global power and has the opportunities and capabilities to exercise coercive diplomacy. Coercive diplomacy may be used more frequently in the future and therefore the study of this subject will be further developed. Thriving and Risk of America’s Real Estate Industry and Impact on American Economy Song Yuhua & Gao Li(65) This article makes an attempt to study the thriving of Americas real estate industry with its risks and the impact of this industry on American economy. The authors hold that, influenced by the thirteen successive rises of interest rate by the Federal Reserves, the real estate price in 2006 can no longer maintain the two digit increase rate of 2005 and the sale volume will not break another record. The potential risk in the current real estate industry will have an negative effect on American economy that should not be ignored. The reduction of consumption, the rise of unemployment rate, and the increase in default rate are the three major effects. Once the risks go out of control, Americas economy will get into a plight. “NonMarket Economy” Rule in America’s Anti-Dumping Act Chen Li(77) The “Non-Market Economy” rule in the US Anti-Dumping Act has become the greatest concern and the biggest obstacle faced by China’s exporters in handling US anti-dumping cases. The article holds that the concept of “Non-Market Economy” was a product of the Cold War and has become, by now, America's most effective tool of trade protectionism. No matter whether the normal value of products is weighed by production factors or by the substitutive country, this rule always puts Chinas exports to America in a very disadvantageous position. So far there is no sign of relaxation on this issue between the two countries. The main reasons include China's trade surplus with the United States in recent years, the rise of trade protectionism in America, the lack of influence on the part of US president over such anti-dumping measures, and excessive ruling power wielded by the Department of Commerce of the United States. A Study of the Postwar Development of Service Industry in Northeastern United States Han Yu(93) This article offers an overview of the service industry in Northeastern America and its special features, analyzes the role of “Manhattan Effect” and information technology in driving the development of production service industry. The article holds that, on the whole, northeastern service industry targets as its client the entire American domestic market and even the international market, and has, to a large degree, broken away from the low productive rate and low wage situation of traditional service industry. It has become the major pillar of regional economic development and plays a pivotal role in the postindustrialization transformation of Northeastern economy. But the polarization in the development of the service industry needs to be addressed. An Initial Analysis on the Payment Conflicts Between the U.S. and France in the Kennedy Administration Wen Qiang(107) During the period of the Kennedy Administration, with the recovery of Western Europe’s economy, the differences between the U.S. and Western Europe in the political, economic and military fields became more evident. The conflicts between the U.S. and France over the imbalance in payment were a clear proof. Bretton Woods was the historical root of this conflict. Centering round the dollar crisis and American gold outflow, the two countries had a fierce contest over the guideline of the alliance and the Cold War strategy. Inside the U.S. government there was a heated debate on how to solve the conflict. In the end, Kennedy threatened to withdraw American forces from Europe, and Charles de Gaulle was compelled to make concessions on the arrangement of compensation for the American deficit. The payment conflict between the two parties was thus temporarily alleviated. REVIEWS A Torn American Society? A Review of Who Are We? Qiu Chaobing(124) Theory and Practice of American National Security Strategy after the Cold War: A Review of Lead the World or to Dominate the World? Post Cold War American National Security Strategy Wei Zongyou(135) An Interpretation of Congress by Congressmen: A Review of Inside the House: Former Members Reveal How Congress Really Works Niu Haibin(144) A Review of “SemiIndependent” Congress and the Taiwan Issue: American Congresss Foreign Policy Behavior Model Zhang Jincui(152) New Books(157) Editors Note(160) Articles appearing in this journal are abstracted and indexed in Historical Abstracts and America: History and Life.