美国研究 AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY 季刊第26卷2012年第4期12月5日出版 〇专题研究：2012年美国大选与中美关系 奥巴马连任的原因及其第二任期面临的挑战周琪 齐皓(7) 从大选看美国的历史周期、政党重组和区域主义谢韬 (30) 美国2012年大选与中美关系张业亮 (46) 2012年美国国会选举与新一届国会对华政策走向刁大明 (68) 〇专论 美国参议院“议事阻碍”：争议、改革及其影响何兴强 (91) 第四点计划在伊朗：“示范”的背后余功德(111) 〇学人追思：怀念唐耐心教授 忆唐耐心教授陶文钊(127) 交往与印象章百家（132） ——忆唐耐心教授 一个好友眼中的南希〔美〕葛来仪（134） 亦师、亦友、亦家人何迪（136） ——怀念唐耐心 全身心投入工作的学者〔美〕李侃如（140） 悼念唐耐心教授牛军（141） 〇学术动态 “2012年美国大选后的中美战略关系走向”学术研讨会综述王欢(143) 中国美国经济学年会暨“当前美国经济走势与中美经贸关系” 研讨会综述刘元玲(145) “非政府组织与美国对外关系”研讨会综述陶非奇(148) “杰斐逊时代的民主、共和与国家构建”研讨会综述邵声何芊(152) 致谢(156) 2012年《美国研究》总目录(157) 编后(160) AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Volume 26Number 4Winter 2012 Huang Ping Hu Guocheng Zhao Mei Lu Ning Wei Hongxia Yang Huijun Luo Weiqing Zhang Chao Mei Renyi Fu Guoying Li Hui Qin Qin Editor Associate Editor Managing Editor Editorial Assistant Editorial Assistant Editorial Assistant Editorial Assistant Editorial Assistant English Polisher English Polisher Editorial Technician Proofreader Senior Advisers Chen Baosen, Wang Jisi, Zi Zhongyun Editorial Board Chu Shulong, Ding Xinghao, Han Tie, He Shunguo, Ji Hong, Jin Canrong, Li Daokui, Li Jianming, Liang Maoxin, Lu Jiande, Mei Renyi, Ni Feng, Ni Shixiong, Qin Yaqing, Ren Donglai, Ruan Zongze, Tao Wenzhao, Wang Rongjun, Wang Xi, Wang Zihong, Wu Baiyi, Xu Hui, Xu Tongwu, Yang Jiemian, Yuan Ming, Yuan Zheng, Zhang Yuyan, Zhou Qi AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY is published jointly by the Chinese Association for American Studies and the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The content of the articles in this journal should not be construed as reflecting the views of either the Association or the Institute. MANUSCRIPTS SHOULD BE SENT TO: American Studies Quarterly at the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Addr. Unit A, No.158, Gulouxidajie, Xicheng District, Beijing 100720, China). SUBSCRIPTIONS: Call (8610) 8408-3531, 8408-3528 Fax: (8610) 8408-3506 Email: mgyjjk@gmail.com http://www.mgyj.com ISSN1002-8986Copyright 1987-2012 American Studies Quarterly Printed in Beijing, China AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Winter 2012Vol. 26, No. 4 FOCAL TOPIC: 2012 U.S. Elections and SinoU.S. Relations Reasons for Obamas Reelection and Challenges in his Second TermZhou Qi and Qi Hao (7) In the 2012 American presidential election, the incumbent President Barack Obama was reelected by a large margin. Main factors for Obamas victory include the improvement of the economy and employment, support by the majority of ethnic minorities, and greater favorability of the midlow income group. Nevertheless, in his second term，at home, a gravely polarized society and the persistent wrangling between the two parties in Congress would block Obamas efforts to fulfill his following policy objectives: to put the medical care reform act into practice, to develop clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to push a new immigration law by working with the Congress. Abroad, the Obama administration has shown the intention to continue the strategy of “rebalancing” towards the AsiaPacific. However, the Obama administration would be confronted with two problems. One is to maintain a balance between strengthening the ties with its traditional Asian allies and developing cooperative relations with China. The other is that the serious and complicating situation in the Middle East may hold back his strategic adjustment. Cycles, Party Realignment, and Sectionalism of American Presidential Elections in Historical and Comparative PerspectivesXie Tao(30) Most of the studies of American presidential elections are singlecase studies that focus on the present election and hence fail to put the election outcome in proper historicalcomparative context. Based on theories of historical cycles, party realignment, and sectionalism, this paper argues that the elections of 1968 and 1992 are critical elections that have resulted in partisan and sectional realignments. The paper further argues that the outcome of the 2012 election largely continues the patterns of partisan and sectional realignments established in the wake of the 1992 election. The paper predicts that there would be a new round of party realignment after 2016, when Barack Obamas second term ends. The 2012 U.S. Presidential Election and SinoUS RelationsZhang Yeliang(46) The issue of China and U.S. policy toward China remained a hot topic throughout the 2012 American presidential election. Contrary to political and security issues in the preceding elections after the Cold War, the China issue in this election centered on economic and trade issues that are related with American domestic economic problems. Bashing China on such issues as the renminbi exchange rate, trade practice, intellectual property rights, and Chinas holdings of U. S. Treasury securities, as well as how to cope with Chinas economic competition were two recurring themes when the presidential candidates mentioned China in the campaign trail. Apart from campaign interests and American public anxiety over their living conditions under the sluggish economy and job situation, how to deal with a rising China and its challenges to U.S. global supremacy, which is one of the key foreign policy issues the next U.S. president has to address, was the inherent and more important factor that made China a campaign issue. This reflects, in a sense, the structural changes of U.S.China relations caused by the rise of China and the narrowing of the power gap between the two countries. Economy will become the most intensive area in SinoU.S. strategic competition. The 2012 U.S. Congressional Elections and the Influence of the New Congress on U.S. Policy towards ChinaDiao Daming(68) The 2012 Congressional Elections show the vigorous return of partisanship. With redistricting and Presidential coattail effects, the trend of partisan polarization continues. The Democrats has got slight gain in Southern red states as a result of changing demographic structure, especially the growth of minority, while the Republican Party is driven further right by the Tea Party. Consequently, the partisan stalemate in Congress will stay for a long time, and the newlyelected Congress will continue to battle with President Obama on many domestic and foreign issues, which undoubtedly will distort national interest and land Americanstyle democracy deeply in myth and confusion. As for the US China policy, the Congress may continue to play the role of “discordant note”, which is likely to disrupt the steady and healthy development of SinoUS relations. The article argues that the divided government may provoke more negative actions on the China issue, and hence bring unnecessary cost to the bilateral relations. Moreover, the changes and adjustments of the members and leaderships in the key congressional committees, in the key congressional caucuses, and the changes of the congressional members relating to China, and even changes of Tea Party members will increase the possibility of the negative impact of the 113th Congress on the China issue. ARTICLES Filibuster in the U.S. Senate: Controversy, Reform and InfluenceHe Xingqiang(91) Filibuster, a powerful parliamentary device to delay or entirely obstruct a vote on a given bill with actions such as prolonged speech or other procedures in the United States Senate, was employed frequently in recent years. It reveals the intensity of polarization in U.S. politics at present. It also works as an important cause for the polarization and even turns it more polarized. Senators use filibusters more frequently on domestic issues, less in foreign affairs. The controversies and reforms on filibuster in U.S. domestic politics reflect the conflict between the forces to protect the minority and the underlying principles of checks and balances and the groups to ensure majority rule so as to safeguard efficiency and smooth operation of the government. Filibuster embodies the values of U.S. democracy in protecting minority rights and restraining unlimited powers. The Politics of Demonstration and the Combat against the Tudeh Party: the Point Four Program in IranYu Gongde (111) According to the containment strategy of the Cold War, the U.S. government implemented the Point Four Program in Iran out of concern over the rapid growth of the communist party Tudeh. To combat the appeal of the communist ideal among the Iranians, the U.S. government underlined the importance of demonstration and devoted to spreading an ideal of progress and a mode of development by carrying out the Program. Through the war of ideals, the U.S. government hoped to win the hearts of the Iranian people against the Tudeh Party, but it was not successful in the end. In Remembrance of Professor Nancy Bernkopf Tucker by her Fellow Scholars In Memory of Professor Nancy Bernkopf TuckerTao Wenzhao (127) Contact and Impression: Recollections of Professor Nancy Bernkopf TuckerZhang Baijia (132) Nancy in the Eyes of a Good FriendBonnie Glaser (134) Teacher, Friend and Family Member: Recalling Nancy Bernkopf TuckerHe Di (136) She Was Fully Committed To Her WorkKenneth Lieberthal (140) My Memory of Professor Nancy Bernkopf TuckerNiu Jun (141) ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES Summary of the Symposium on “the Future of SinoUS Strategic Relations in the Wake of 2012 American Elections”Wang Huan (143) Summary of the Annual Conference of China Association of the Study of American Economy and Symposium of “the Direction of American Economy and SinoU.S. Economic and Trade Relations” Liu Yuanling (145) Summary of International Symposium on “NGOs and American Foreign Relations”Tao Feiqi (148) Summary of the Forum on “Democracy, Republic and Nation Building in the Jefferson Era”Shao Sheng and He Qian (152) A Note Of Thanks(156) General Catalog of American Studies Quarterly in 2012(157) Editors Note(160)