（全文见PDF版） 〇专题研讨：中美关系30年 对中美关系变化的展望（傅立民） 中美关系处于历史新起点（马振岗） 中美关系的未来（约瑟夫·奈） 前景广阔的中美经贸关系（陈宝森） 〇专论 关于美国次贷危机严重性的实证判断（李云林） 美国2008年大选与奥巴马政府的政策趋向（张业亮） 美国女权运动·女性文学·女权批评（金莉） 希拉里与佩林：妇女运动、性别政治和美国总统大选（张璐） 竞争性自由化战略与美国的区域贸易安排（何永江） “经济增长阶段论”与美国对外开发援助政策（梁志） 〇书评 谁在忧虑中国的崛起？（樊吉社） ——《太平洋流》读后 〇学术动态 “中美关系30年：过去、现在、未来”国际研讨会综述（刘卫、东李枏） 清华-布鲁金斯中心举办“中美气候变化合作”公共政策论坛（斯萍） 清华大学中美关系研究中心对外发布研究报告（张旭东） 著述巡礼 编后 AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Spring 2009, Vol. 23, No. 1 FOCAL TOPIC: Thirty Years of ChinaUS Relations SinoAmerican Dynamics in Perspective (Chas W. Freeman, Jr.) A New Historic Starting Point of ChinaUS Relations (Ma Zhengang) The Future of ChinaUS Relations (Joseph S. Nye) Broad Prospects for ChinaUS Economic and Trade Relations (Chen Baosen) ARTICLES Empirical Judgment of the Seriousness of American Subprime Crisis (Li Yunlin) The article makes an empirical judgment of the seriousness of the subprime crisis from 2007 through 2009 from a six dimensional angle. The conclusion is: the seriousness and worsening speed of the current subprime default is unprecedented in American morgage history. The outbreak and worsening of the crisis is closely linked with the extensive issuance of the subprime loans with high risk and low quality. Currently, the issuance of nonagency MBS has ceased and the market of MBS issuance totally relies on the support of government and governmentfunded enterprises. The fate of investment banks is determined not by high leverage rate but by default which leads to the lowering of asset quality. The bankruptcy, merging and transformation of the five investment banks signified the passing of the most serious stage of the subprime crisis. The author expects that in 2009 the default pressure caused by the risk of overissuance of subprime loans will reduce while the default pressure caused by economic recession will increase; the default rate will go up but the increase scale will be narrowed. The turbulent situation of the financial market will calm down and American economy may not fall into deep recession in the future but will remain in poor performance for a relatively long period of time. The 2008 Election in the US and the Policy Orientation of the Obama Administration (Zhang Yeliang) On the basis of analysis of the victory of Obama and the Democratic Party in the 2008 election, the article explores the elections impact on American politics and society and the orientation of domestic and foreign policies of the Obama administration. The article holds that the 2008 election is a historic one in American electoral political history. The result of the election will have significant and farreaching influence on American political orientation and racial relations in American society. Centerleft will be the trend for American politics in the coming four years. Democratic control of both the White House and the Congress for the first time in the past 16 years, the high expectation and support of the public provide favorable conditions for the Obama administration to put its domestic and foreign policies into practice but the new administration still faces serious challenges. Americas Feminist Movement, Female Writing, and Feminist Criticism (Jin li) This article traces the developments of Americas feminist movement, female writing, and feminist criticism, and explores their interaction and common themes. The author argues that the rise of American feminism synchronized with the first flourishing period of female writing in America; the second wave of feminism gave rise to the American feminist criticism as an academic field, and boosted the literary creation of contemporary women writers. Since the 1970s, feminist movement, female writing, and feminist criticism in America have joined hands, and they together have changed the landscape of American culture and society. Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin: Women Movement, Gender Politics, and American Presidential Election (Zhang Lu) Through the description of the history and social background against which the participation of Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin, two women politicians, in the 2008 presidential election is made possible, the article points out the milestone significance of the election in the development of American gender politics. The article holds that their participation was the political result of the previous two waves of American women movements, namely, the voting rights for women and the increase of womens participation rate in politics. Meanwhile, their participation was also the result of interaction between American women movement and American party politics. Competitive Liberalization Strategy and American Regional Trade Arrangement (He Yongjiang) Through the conclusion of trade agreements with other countries, American competitive liberalization strategy encourages those countries to open up their domestic markets to American businesses and adopt American business rules and regulations and at the same time support American global foreign policy and military goals. The article holds that since the United States puts too much stress on political factors and takes too much advantage of market asymmetry in making regional trade arrangement, most of the regional trade arrangements, including bilateral free trade agreements, with the exception of NAFTA and a few other examples, have very little economic impact on its trading partners. This not only determines the low level of integration and the long sluggishness of such arrangement but also affects the diversification of regional trade arrangement in the major areas of the world. “Stages of Economic Growth” and American Foreign Development Aid Policy (Liang Zhi) Walt W. Rostow advanced the “stages of economic growth” theory in the 1950s, which embraced a global perspective and was deeply influenced by the “liberal tradition” and the “imperialism theory.” He also tried to push the United States to implement the World Economic Plan to provide large scale development aid for less developed countries. In the course of his effort, he won the support of President John F. Kennedy, and his theory became the theoretical basis of American foreign development aid policy in the 1960s. However, in the end Rostow did not reach the academic goal of seeking truth, nor did he realize the political ambition of bringing about the taking off of third world countries. This article focuses on the main content of “stages of economic growth,” the ideological implication of the theory, and the influence of the theory, so as to bring out the difficulty faced by people like Rostow who played the roles of both scholar and official in promoting the formulation and implementation of policy. REVIEWS Who Is Worrying about Chinas Rise? A Review of Pacific Currents: The Responses of US Allies and Security Partners in East Asia to Chinas Rise (Fan Jishe) ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES Summary of the Symposium of the 30th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between China and the US: Past, Present, and Future (Liu Weidong and Li Nan) Public Policy Forum on ChinaUS Cooperation on Climate Change Held by Brookings-Tsinghua Center (Si Ping) Report released by the Research Center of SinoUS Relations of Qinghua University (Zhang Xudong) New Books Editor's Note