（全文见PDF版） 美国研究 季刊第23卷2009年第4期12月5日出版 军事存在与无核化:美国朝核政策浅析（李开盛） 美国对朝政策:两次朝核危机比较（樊吉社） 奥巴马执政以来的中美关系（金灿荣、刘世强） 奥巴马政府的对台政策走向（李振广） 迈向“准军事同盟”（信强） ——美台安全合作的深化与升级（1995~2008） 美国人口状况的发展变化及其影响（楚树龙、方力维） 艰难的政策抉择（袁征） ——论杜鲁门政府的巴勒斯坦政策（1945~1948） 对美国平民党运动的再思考（原祖杰） 〇书评 读《治理中国》有感（王缉思） 在事故中重构美国法律（胡晓进） ——读《事故共和国》 美国政治史研究的新趋向（蔡萌） ——读肖恩·威兰茨的《美国民主的兴起》 〇学术动态 国际美国研究学会第四届世界大会综述（李期铿、孙有中） “正常化以来的中美关系”研讨会综述（蔡翠红） “东亚大国关系与热点问题”国际研讨会综述（王成至） 2009年《美国研究》总目录 编后 AMERCIAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Volume 23, Number 4, Winter 2009 Huang Ping Hu Guocheng Zhao Mei Lu Ning Wei Hongxia Liu Hui Mei Renyi Li Hui Qin Qin Editor Associate Editor Managing Editor Editorial Assistant Editorial Assistant Editorial Assistant English Polisher Editorial Technician Proofreader Senior Advisers Chen Baosen, Wang Jisi, Zi Zhongyun Editorial Board Chu Shulong, Ding Xinghao, Gu Guoliang, He Shunguo, Ji Hong, Jin Canrong, Li Daokui, Li Jianming, Li Xiaogang, Liang Maoxin, Mao Yushi, Mei Renyi, Ni Feng, Ni Shixiong, Qin Yaqing, Ren Donglai, Ruan Zongze, Sheng Ning, Tao Wenzhao, Wang Xi, Wang Yizhou, Wang Zihong, Wu Baiyi, Xu Hui, Yang Jiemian, Yuan Ming, Zhang Yuyan, Zhou Qi, Zhu Shida AERMICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY is published jointly by the Chinese Association for American Studies and the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The content of the articles in this journal should not be construed as reflecting the views of either the Association or the Institute. MANUSCRIPTS SHOULD BE SENT TO: American Studies Quarterly at the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (Addr. Dong Yuan, No. 3 Zhang Zizhong Rd., Beijing 100007, China). SUBSCRIPTIONS: Call (8610) 6400-0071 Fax: (8610) 6400-0021 Email: mgyjjk@gmail.com http://www.mgyj.com ISSN1002-8986Copyright 1987-2009 American Studies Quarterly Printed in Beijing, China AMERICAN STUDIES QUARTERLY Winter 2009, Vol. 23, No. 4 ARTICLES Military Presence and Denuclearization: Analysis of America's Korean Nuclear Policy (Li Kaisheng) The direction of the Korean nuclear issue affects two important interests of the United States. The first is the prevention of nuclear proliferation, especially the prevention of nuclear technology and material from falling into the hands of terrorists. The second is the maintenance of U.S. forces in South Korea so as to avoid challenges to its military presence and strategy in East Asia. On the Korean nuclear issue, there exists a kind of tension between the two interests. A resolute pursuit of denuclearization may finally lead to the termination of the stateofwar situation on the Peninsula and the realization of normalization of relations between the United States and North Korea, which will pose a serious challenge to the position of American forces in South Korea. Since both interests are important, the United States, while making efforts to delink the nuclear issue with the Korean issue, tries to maintain a subtle and fragile balance on the goal of its Korean nuclear policy. American Policy toward Korea: A Comparison between the Two Korean Nuclear Crises (Fan Jishe) Within the two 8year terms of Presidents Clinton and Bush, the crisis of nuclear proliferation, caused by North Koreas attempt to develop nuclear capabilities, went through two stages. Judging from the course of development of the Korean nuclear crisis, the negotiation and consultation aimed at defusing the crisis, and the consequences after each stage, the handling of the issue by the Clinton administration was relatively successful, while the handling by the Bush administration was a failure. After years of dragging, the Korean nuclear crisis remains unsolved, and the content and extension of the issue have undergone significant changes. The success and failure of U.S. policy in dealing with the two crises have provided experiences and lessons for future solution of the Korean nuclear crisis. Sino-US Relations since Obama Came into Power (Jin Canrong and Liu Shiqiang) Against the background of American domestic change of government, the spread of international financial crisis, and the protruding of global challenges, SinoUS relations maintain, on the whole, positive and stable development. Although frictions in functional issue areas have never stopped and strategic troubles between the two countries may intensify as a result of the narrowing of the power gap between China and the United States, the contradictions and problems between them are under control thanks to the thick basis of the common interests, broad space for cooperation and compound dialogue mechanisms. Fluctuation within a framework of overall stability will become the basic feature of SinoUS relations in the future. Obamas first visit to China redefined the strategic role of USChina relations and offered reassurance of American policy, thus opening up a new stage for strategic mutual trust and coexistence through cooperation between the two countries. The Orientation of the Obama Administration's Taiwan Policy (Li Zhenguang) The basic tenor of the Obama administrations policy toward Taiwan is the maintenance of stability. With the deepening of SinoUS strategic dialogue and cooperation and the peaceful development of relations across the Taiwan Strait, the environment for the United States policy toward Taiwan has undergone certain changes. Against such a background, the Taiwan policy of the Obama administration will move toward further enhancing USTaiwan relations while maintaining the peaceful development of the relations between the two sides of the Strait. Moving toward a “QuasiMilitary Alliance”: The Deepening and Upgrading of USTaiwan Security Cooperation (1995～2008) (Xin Qiang) Since the third Taiwan Strait crisis of 1995~1996, the United States initiated and put into practice a series of policies and measures which deepened USTaiwan mutual security relations. These policies and measures include the assistance of Taiwans military forces to set up and improve the integrated “joint automatic command system of the three services of armed forces,” the promotion of cooperation between the United States and Taiwan over high military technology, the promotion of collection, conformity and sharing of intelligence information between the two armed forces, and the participation in and guidance of Taiwans military exercises. With the constant upgrading of USTaiwan military “software” cooperation and the deepening of the degree of “institutionalization,” USTaiwan security relations are moving toward the dangerous direction of a “quasimilitary alliance.” The Demographic Changes in the United States and their Impact (Chu Shulong and Fang Liwei) The United States is the only developed country in the world whose population witnesses a relatively high growth rate. This makes it possible for the United States to maintain the trend of a fairly rapid growth in production and consumption in a comparatively long period of time. However, the large number of Latino immigrants and their descendants, who are the mainstay of population growth, have a lower level of education and a poorer level of English, thus forming a longterm trend of degradation of overall population quality. The degradation will inevitably affect the global competitiveness of American products and services, thus leading to the downward trend of American national strength, international position and influence in the first half of the 21st century and even beyond. A Difficult Choice: On the Truman Administration's Policy toward Palestine (1945～1948) (Yuan Zheng) Through the analysis of the Truman administrations policy toward Palestine from the time of the end of WW II to the time prior to the founding of Israel, the article aims at showing the important role played by the United States on the Palestinian issue, thus demonstrating how domestic politics in the US affects its foreign policy. In the course of policy formulation, the Truman administration constantly fell into a dilemma. Strong domestic pressure urged the Truman administration to support the founding of a Jewish state while American interest in the Middle East called for keeping friendly relations with the Arab world. The situation became more complicated after the outbreak of the Cold War. After much weighing and hesitation, Truman, taking domestic political needs as the priority, came down on the side of supporting Zionism. A Revisit of the American Populist Movement (Yuan Zujie) The populist movement in the US at the end of the 19th century was a mass protest movement against big banks, big corporations and other monopolistic enterprises and the Federal government which shielded them. Conflicting evaluations of the movement among historians have existed since the 1930s. The focus of division lies in how to view the moral and economic demands of the 19thcentury American farmers and the cultural and social context that produced such demands. In actuality, what faced the agricultural residents was not a fair market economy. Land speculation and price monopoly brought huge losses to the farmers. Therefore, they regarded those big enterprises which represented such economic behavior as “they” in the American society, while regarding the farmers themselves as “we.” The purpose of such division was to seek selfprotection politically and economically. REVIEWS Preface to the Chinese Translation of Kenneth Lieberthal's Governing China: From Revolution Through Reform (Wang Jisi) A Review of The Accidental Republic: Crippled Workingmen, Destitute Widows, and the Remaking of American Law (Hu Xiaojin) A Review of Sean Wilentz's The Rise of American Democracy: Jefferson to Lincoln (Cai Meng) ACADEMIC ACTIVITIES Summary of the Fourth World Congress of the International American Studies Association (Li Qikeng and Sun Youzhong) Summary of the Symposium on Sino-US Relations since Normalization (Cai Cuihong) Summary of the International Conference on Relations between East Asian Powers and the Hot Issues (Wang Chengzhi) General Catalog for 2009 Editor's Note