（全文见PDF版） 美国研究 季刊2000年第3期 AMERICAN STUDIES 第14卷9月5日出版 追根溯源：对美国对华政策(1945-1950) 的再思考资中筠(7) 微软垄断案解析胡国成 (21) 美国银行业经营与管理模式的变化 动因分析李志辉 (42) 威胁评估、国内政治与冷战后美国的 导弹防御政策樊吉社 (66) 美国冷战史学的变迁与杜勒斯研究石斌 (89) 论美国司法独立的确立白雪峰(114) ○书评·文评 通向自由和繁荣之路赵梅(132) ——读《冷眼向洋：百年风云启示录》 希望的历史，历史的希望熊志勇(142) ——读《中美关系史1949-1972》 对外政策的国际根源苏长和(148) ——读《霸权体系与国际冲突》 ○著述巡礼(156) 编后(160) 本期责任编辑：赵梅 本杂志刊登的论文在美国Historical Abstracts and America: History and Life上登有摘要和索引。 主办单位 中华美国学会 中国社会科学院美国研究所 主管单位中国社会科学院 印刷装钉北京怀柔新华印刷厂 发行、订阅处中国社会科学院美国研究所 （100007北京张自忠路3号东院） 电子信箱 zhaomei@isc.cass.net.cn 刊号ISSN1002-8986 CN11-1170／C 国外代号Q1122 国外发行中国国际图书贸易总公司北京399信箱 定价： 国内版5.00元 国际版3.00美元（邮费在外） AMERICAN STUDIES Fall 2000，Vol. 14, No. 3 ARTICLES TRACING TO THE SOURCE: RECONSIDERATION OF THE AMERICAN CHINA POLICY (1945-1950)Zi Zhongyun(7) The SinoU.S. relationship has again reached a crossroads. The origin of most o f the present issues can be traced back to U.S. policy towards Chinas civil war in the late 1940s. Taiwan remains a thorny issue and, like half a century ago, U .S. China policy is again a victim of U.S. internal politics. Despite the end of the Cold War, the ideological factor still weighs heavily in U.S. China policy considerations. After WWII, the belief of American omnipotence spurred ever deep er U.S. involvement in Chinas civil war. Now this belief is to some extent emb o died in the catchword “American leadership,” which means to change the world i n Americas own image. The United States started by aiming at the goodwill of t he Chinese people and ended up in provoking ill feelings. Now that a variety of ne w factors have emerged in SinoU.S. relations, the wisdom of those who are in a position to influence the course of events may play a decisive role. AN ANALYSIS OF THE CASE OF MICROSOFT MONOPOLYHu Guocheng (21) Owing to its violation of the federal antitrust laws, Microsoft, a software ma g nate, was sentenced in the first trial to breaking up into two firms. People fee l puzzled about the federal governments practice that encourages merger of big companies on the one hand but sued Microsoft for monopoly on the other. Through an analysis of the case of monopoly against Microsoft and American federal anti  trust laws, the article provides an explanation. It argues that the reason why M icrosoft was convicted of monopoly was not its status of monopoly in the market of computer operating systems, but its abuse of the monopolistic power by using unfair means of competition against others. AN ANALYSIS ON THE CHANGES IN THE MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION OF AMERICAN BANKSLi Zhihui (42) In 1998-1999, two major events highlighted the remarkable changes in American co mmercial banks. The first was the merge of Citicorp and Travelers Group into one of the largest American financial groups. The second was Congress adoption of the Modernization of Financial Service Act in November 1999 that discards the di vision in administering banking businesses by trades and encourages joint manag e ment of banks, securities, and insurances. The article analyzes major changes in the environment for the management of American commercial competition among ban ks. It identifies financial innovations, government deregulation, asset securiti zation, financial globalization, and technological advances as the major causes of these changes. THREAT ASSESSMENT, DOMESTIC POLITICS, AND POSTCOLD WAR U.S. POLICY FOR MISSILE DEFENSEFan Jishe (66) The U.S. government has declared time and again that its ballistic missile defen se policy is based on four elements: missile threat assessment, technical feasib ility, costeffectiveness, and impact on arms control agreements. However, the m ost crucial factors in making postCold War U.S. missile defense policy are mis s ile threat assessment and domestic partisan politics. The article examines U.S. assessment of missile threat, the role of domestic partisan politics, and the in fluence of the interactions of the two factors on U.S. missile defense policy. CHANGES IN THE AMERICAN HISTORIOGRAPHY OF THE COLD WAR AND THE RESEARCH ON JOHN F. DULLESShi Bin (89) For over forty years, U.S. scholars studies of American foreign policy in the E isenhower period have undergone the evolution from “traditionalism” to “revis ion ism” and to “postrevisionism,” and these historiographic schools of tho ught have influenced the study of John F. Dulles too. Traditionalists held that Dull es was the major decision maker and implementer of American foreign policy; revi sionists regarded Dwight D. Eisenhower as a very important decision maker; and p ostrevisionists revised and summed up these two views, by using newly declassi f ied documents. With the availability of new materials, the research has become m ore thoroughgoing. Meanwhile, many questions are worth reassessment, such as the overall Cold War strategy of Dulles and the relationship between “peaceful evo lution” and “peaceful change.” ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCEBai Xuefeng(114) This article analyzes the process of establishing judicial independence and seek s its profound historical origins in the colonial period, the revolutionary and confederate period, and the period in which the Constitution was drawn and the f ederal government was just founded. It shows that judicial independence was a re sult of the antiautocratic struggle of the American people and a strong safegu ard for the successful workings of the U.S. system of checks and balances. REVIEWS THE WAY LEADING TO FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY: COMMENTS ON LOOK AT THE WORLD WITH A COLD EYE: THE REVELATIONS OF THE UPS AND DOWNS OVER A HUNDRED YEARS BY ZI ZHONGYUN ET ALZhao Mei(132) THE HISTORY OF HOPES AND THE HOPES OF HISTORY: A REVIEW OF THE HISTORY OF SINOU.S. RELATIONS 1949-1972Xiong Zhiyong(142) THE INTERNATIONAL ROOTS OF FOREIGN POLICY: A REVIEW OF HEGEMONIC SYSTEM AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTSSu Changhe(148) NEW BOOKS(156) EDITORS NOTE (160) Articles appearing in this journal are abstracted and indexed in HISTORICAL ABSTRACTS and AMERICA: HISTORY AND LIFE. AMERICAN STUDIES, a quarterly, is published jointly by the Chinese Association for American Studies and the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The content of the articles in this journal should not be construed as reflecting the views of either the Association or the Institute.