（全文见PDF版） 美 国 研 究 季 刊 1987年第3期 AMERICAN STUDIES 第1卷 9月25日出版 美国的短期经济预测 朱景尧(7) 里根之后的美国政局 张 毅( 37) 美国城市经济及其面临的一些问题 郭吴新( 59) 美国的强制退休问题 朱传一、孙耀楣( 78) 美国对亚太地区起飞的作用 李国友( 95) 美国“门户开放”政策辨析 严四光(115) 美国环境史观的演变 侯文蕙(136) 《一种特殊关系的形成》中文版序 〔美〕 韩 德(155) 本期责任编辑: 金灿荣 编辑出版 中华美国学 中国社会科学院美国研究所 照排 中国社会科学院美国研究所 印刷装钉 北京新华印刷厂 发行、订阅处 中国社会科学院美国研究所 北京建国门内大街5号 刊号 ISSN1002-8986/CN11-1170／C@ 国外代号 Q1122 国外发行 中国国际图书贸易总公司 北京399信箱 定价: 国内版1.75元 国际版2.50美元（邮费在外） AMERICAN STUDIES Fall 1987 Vol. 1, No. 3 CONTENTS ON U. S. SHORT TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS Zhu Jingyao (7) A general account of the short term macroeconomic forecasts in the United?States. The author presents an introduction to and some comments on the evolution and the present condition of these forecasts, as well as various methods and techniques currently used by different institutions and their actual results. In addition, he gives his views as to how the forecasts can? be used in China. ON POST-REAGAN POLITICS Zhang Yi ( 37) The swing towards conservatism brought Reagan to the White House and brought about the "Reagan Revolution". Political developments in the future also depend on the fate of conservatism. At the moment, it seems that, no matter who is going to be the next president, conservatism will retain its upperhand in American politics after Reagan, though to a lesser degree than under him. AMERICAN URBAN ECONOMY AND ITS PROBLEMS Guo Wuxin ( 59) Urban economy has been playing an ever more important role in U. S. national economy. Its development is characterized by the diversification of urban functions, the rapid growth of the tertiary industry and the gradual move of population and businesses from central metropolitan districts to peripheral areas. Since WW II, U. S. urban economy has encountered many difficult problems such as poverty and high unemployment, the soaring of real estate and housing prices, traffic jam, pollution, financial deficit, etc., some of which may be mitigated, while others remain unsolved. U. S. MANDATORY RETIREMENT POLICY Zhu Chuanyi & Sun Yaomei ( 78) This article deals with the United States' policy of retirement, its historical evolution and the debate concerning the policy of mandatory retirement. Information about China's present policy of mandatory retirement and suggestions on the improvement of the policy in the future are also given by the author. THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE ECONOMIC TAKEOFF OF THE ASIAN REGION Li Guoyou ( 95) This essay treats the role of the United States as a springboard for Japan's and newly industrializing countries' takeoff in their respective economies. Key factors in their successful development strategies, such as world market-oriented policy, industrial upgrading and development acceleration through economic exchanges with the United States, and the potential of American market are discussed. In conclusion, the author also offers a brief view about what China can draw from the experience of the economic takeoff of the Asian region. AN ANALYSIS OF THE U. S. OPEN DOOR POLICY Yan Siguang ( 115) A short history of the U. S. open door policy towards China, as viewed by the author. During the first thirty years of the twentieth century this policy of the United States, though not first initiated by her, in fact neither restrained nor delayed the imperialist aggressions against China. On the contrary, the United States gained increasingly more rights and interests in China during this period. EVOLUTION OF THE AMERICAN CONCEPTION?OF ENVIRONMENTAL HISTORY Hou Wenhui (136) North America had been regarded as inexhaustible in resources till late last century when industrialization severely deteriorated the environment. In the effort to save the environment, conservationists advocated reasonable use of resources and won more support than reservationists who preached reserving the wilderness. People are now aware that nature can not be exploited at will. The ecosystem concept which treats air, water, soil, organisms and man as interdependent has become more popular and may serve improving man-nature relation. INTRODUCTION TO THE CHINESE EDITION OF THE MAKING OF A SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP Michael H. Hunt (155) The author, a professor of American diplomatic history, writes briefly about his book in an introduction to its Chinese translation, reviewing the process of the making and implementation of the U. S. open door policy and the Chinese?reaction to it. He also makes an interesting comparison between the historical impacts of the policy and the present Chinese external relations under the open to the outside world policy. AMERICAN STUDIES, a quarterly, is published jointly by the Chinese Association for American Studies, and the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The content of the articles in this journal should not be construed as reflecting the views either of the Association or the Institute.